The southern part of the state Floridaits keys and a portion of western Cuba could enter this afternoon under a tropical storm watch or warning due to the high probability that the Invest 91Lan area of low pressure near the Yucatan Peninsula, will develop into Tropical Storm Alex.
The National Hurricane Center The NHC gave this area of disorganized thunderstorms a 90% potential for cyclone development in both 48 hours and the next five days at 2:00 pm. The report issued at 8:00 am stipulated a probability of 80%.
Currently, the area near the Gulf of Mexico is not the most favorable for the development of a tropical system, since the winds in the upper atmosphere exceed 50 knots (57.5 miles per hour) and this affects the strengthening of a circulation. However, the weather agency stated in its weather forecast that, regardless of the development of the Invest 91L, weather conditions related to a tropical depression or storm are possible this weekend in the above areas.
“Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall will be possible across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba during the day or so tomorrow, and then spreading across southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys. Florida between Friday morning and Friday night. Then the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday,” the NHC said.
Nevertheless, The agency highlighted that there is a lot of uncertainty regarding the intensity forecast, so it emphasized that what is clear is that the meteorological models insist on an increase in precipitation for various portions of Florida starting tomorrow, Friday.
Due to the uncertainty of the forecast, the hurricane hunting team of the reservation of the United States Air Force left at noon today for his first mission this season to investigate the Invest 91L.
ship, model WC-130J Weatherbirdit will take data about the circulation, if any, in the center of the system, as well as the extent of its winds and speed.
Infrared satellite images show a circular field of clouds beginning to gather in the area near the Yucatan Peninsula.
A storm developing so early in hurricane season is not new. In fact, last year was the seventh year in a row in which a tropical system formed before the hurricane season that begins on June 1, so, if it materializes, the formation of Tropical Storm Alex would be within the average.
Renowned atmospheric scientist Philip Klotzbach, even highlighted that the Gulf of Mexico, the western Caribbean Sea and the western subtropical Atlantic are the areas where the first cyclonic developments typically occur during the hurricane season. Klotzbach is the director of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the Colorado State University (CSU, in English).
The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, in English) predicted that for this year the Hurricane season be above normal, with up to 21 storms forming.
The agency forecast a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), and of those cyclones, 3 to 6 they will be major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or more).