A derelict SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket upper stage is hurtling toward an unplanned impact on the lunar surface on Wednesday at 8:35 AM CEST, according to calculations by US astronomer Bill Gray and NASA. Launched in January 2025, the hardware faces gravitational pulls and solar activity that altered its trajectory away from Earth.
The Orbital Mechanics Behind the Lunar Intercept
The upper stage originally lifted off on January 15, 2025, carrying two distinct lunar landers: the Blue Ghost lander built by US-based Firefly Aerospace and the Resilience lander developed by Japanese start-up ispace. While the Blue Ghost successfully touched down on the Moon roughly two months later, the Resilience mission met a rougher fate, crashing into the lunar surface shortly after deployment. Meanwhile, the Falcon 9’s lower booster executed a return to Earth, but the upper stage remained stranded in high-energy cislunar space.
SpaceX manager Julianna Scheiman explained during a press briefing that upper stages typically burn up in Earth’s atmosphere on standard trajectories. However, high-energy missions demand alternative disposal maneuvers to comply with strict regulatory frameworks. “And what happened is a mixture of solar activity and gravitational forces that has put it on a path toward the Moon,” Scheiman noted.
Observational Challenges and the Search for the Crater
Catching the actual impact from Earth is going to be virtually impossible. William Cooke, a manager at NASA, stated, “I think it will be very, very difficult to see, if not impossible.” Astronomer Bill Gray offered a slightly more optimistic outlook to the New York Times, pointing out that “the object strikes at a point where there is at least a little bit of hope that we can observe it.”
It could take several hours or days post-impact to confirm the collision using lunar orbiters. NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) is scheduled to pass over the anticipated impact zone in the days following the event to photograph any newly formed crater.
Mission and Debris Profile
Launch Date: January 15, 2025
Launch Vehicle: SpaceX Falcon 9 (Upper Stage)
Payloads: Firefly Aerospace Blue Ghost, ispace Resilience
Calculated Impact: Wednesday, 8:35 AM CEST
Verification Asset: NASA Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO)
Contextualizing Lunar Impacts in Modern Space Operations
Unplanned space junk collisions with the Moon are rare but not entirely unprecedented. Roughly four years ago, scientists using imagery from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter identified an accidental lunar impact involving a stray rocket piece. Researchers initially linked that debris to an older Chinese booster from the 2014 Chang’e 5-T1 mission, though officials in Beijing rejected those findings.
Despite the lack of a controlled descent for this specific Falcon 9 stage, space agencies increasingly view intentional lunar impacts as a recognized disposal option. NASA maintains that targeted or predictable disposal can provide a manageable end-of-life protocol for deep-space hardware. Crucially, space authorities confirm there is zero risk to Earth. As the scientific community prepares for Wednesday’s event, researchers will continue monitoring the trajectory and final resting place to gather more empirical data on orbital decay in the Earth-Moon system.
