A drifting piece of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is hours away from unintentionally crashing into the moon. The school-bus-size object, which has been floating in space since last year, is due to hit the lunar surface at about 5,400 mph (8,690 km/h) on Wednesday, according to The Guardian.
SpaceX Rocket Stage Headed for Unintentional Lunar Crash
The 40-to-45-foot-long rocket stage weighs between 8,000 and 10,000 pounds (roughly 4,000 to 4,500 kilograms) and is the leftover upper stage from a mission launched on January 15, 2025, from Cape Canaveral, according to Weather. That flight hoisted a pair of lunar landers: Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost, which became the first private spacecraft to complete a fully successful lunar touchdown, and a Japan-based ispace lander that wrecked, according to WJBF.
Because the January lunar lander mission required more thrust than missions closer to Earth, the rocket’s second stage remained in space instead of falling back into Earth’s atmosphere or plunging into the ocean. Astronomers determined earlier this year that a mixture of solar activity and gravitational forces put the uncontrolled stage on an orbital trajectory ending at the moon, according to NASA.
Impact Details and Viewing Expectations from Earth
The collision is expected to take place near Einstein Crater on the moon’s sunlit western limb on the near side facing Earth. NASA expects the impact to create a crater roughly 60 feet wide and 12 feet deep, while other experts estimate dimensions up to nearly 90 feet across and 16 feet deep, according to WJBF. The crash will pack the equivalent energy of three tons of TNT.
The event will occur around 2:35 a.m. EDT (0635 UTC) on Wednesday, August 5, according to Space.com. While the impact poses no danger to Earth, the flash itself will likely be washed out by the bright lunar surface and remain too dim to see with the naked eye. However, observers equipped with sufficiently large telescopes and cameras may be able to spot an ejecta plume of dust and rock blasted high above the lunar horizon.
Eastern portions of the United States and Canada, along with much of South America, are positioned to have the best viewing conditions. NASA noted that ground-based telescopes from the Meteoroid Environments Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center will attempt to image the impact, though weather and lighting conditions could make viewing difficult.
Scientific Opportunity and Broader Space Debris Concerns
Researchers emphasize that the accidental crash presents a rare scientific opportunity. Because the hollow aluminum rocket stage has a well-known size, mass, and velocity, scientists can test models of how artificial impacts excavate lunar material, create craters, and behave as ejecta plumes.
Several spacecraft will observe the collision from close vantage points. NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) and South Korea’s Danuri lunar orbiter—which is expected to pass within a mile or two of the rocket just two minutes before impact—will gather before-and-after shots of the crash scene, according to WJBF. Additionally, the ShadowCam instrument aboard South Korea’s Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter will look for imaging opportunities.
This incident marks only the second known accidental dead rocket impact on the moon, following a Chinese rocket segment that dug out craters on the lunar far side in 2022. While disposal on the lunar surface is a technically accepted method for certain low lunar orbit missions, space experts noted the crash highlights growing concerns regarding crowded orbits and leftover space hardware. NASA and SpaceX are discussing ways to prevent future lunar impacts as crewed and robotic missions to the moon become more frequent.
