In view of the inflation forecasts for this year, Luxembourg analysts believe it is likely that an index tranche will be triggered this winter… and in the spring of 2024 too!
An index this month, another in April and certainly one by the end of 2023: for a few weeks, the scenario of “three annual indexes” had been in people’s minds. But the Luxembourg Statistical Institute is already adding a nouvel index. For next year certainly, but just as reliable according to its latest forecasts.
Indeed, according to the calculations of STATECnot only This year should know one more inflation sensible (+3,4%) more 2024 could be even worse price-wise (+4,8%). A hypothesis “to be considered with caution” but which would then trigger an index tranche during the second quarter of 2024.
The information will not fail to be reminded of the 3 mars next. Date selected by Xavier Bettel for bring together a tripartite. But before that, on February 28, the Prime Minister of Luxembourg intends meet separately with unions. One way in particular to respond to the common request of the OGBL, the LCGB and the CGFP to cross it to discuss the systematic rescheduling of the tax scales after each index. An idea rejected by the Minister of Finance a few days ago.
Middle ground
However, the hypothesis announced by Statec takes into account thetermination without compensation of all tariff shields currently in place in Luxembourg until 31 December. We are talking here in particular about the public aid introduced to spare the household budget as much as possible from increases in gas, fuel oil or electricity.
And it’s good to what will happen on January 1, 2024 and the following months which Xavier Bettel wishes to discuss with unions and employers during this meeting on March 3. Because even if, possibly, the next legislative elections (in October) can lead to a change of government, it is today that the major orientations must be considered.
The coming rise in the price of gas and electricity estimated at +40% and +80% during 2024 is one of Statec’s forecasts that the social partners will bear in mind. Between the defense of purchasing power for some, public accounts for others and the state of business finances for some, it will be necessary to find a middle ground.
Who knows, after deciding to take full responsibility taking into account the additional cost generated for the private sector by the 3rd index of 2023, will the State make the same gesture for the beginning of 2024?
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