2023-05-09 15:45:33
The Cac 40 lost 0.59% today, to close below the 7,400 point threshold, while the American indices are also on a downward trend, around 0.4% for the S&P 500 as for the Nasdaq Composite. The Dow Jones holds up better, with a more limited decline of 0.1%, supported by the 3% rise in Boeingafter winning an order from Ryanair for at least 150 737 Max aircraft, its best-selling aircraft, worth more than $20 billion at list price.
Several fears, on the merits, for the operators. The first is on tomorrow’s agenda, Wednesday, with the long-awaited publication of consumer prices in the United States for the month of April. It is hoped that core inflation will come back from 5.6% in March to 5.5% over one year while the overall figure could have stabilized around 5%. But, in monthly data, the latter could have fallen from 0.1% to 0.4% due to the rise in energy prices after the reduction in production undertaken by the OPEC+ countries. “Any upside inflation surprise would put the Fed hawks back in the spotlight and lead to a reduction in dovish expectations,” Swissquote’s Ipek Ozkardeskaya said on Monday.
While the latest jobs numbers released on Friday came in strong, Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, said the market is too optimistic about the chances that Fed rate cuts could be accompanied by further increases. sustainable growth. ” The Stock Exchange continues to bet on the best of both worldshe wrote in a note, we consider the probability of these two elements occurring in concert this year to be low, and our economists do not expect any rate cuts in 2023. Investors today have an overly optimistic view of politics from the fed ».
An “economic disaster”
As a result, too, according to the Fed’s latest quarterly survey of banks (“Sloos”), the number of banks that have tightened their credit conditions for loans to medium and large businesses came out higher than expected, at 46%, compared to 44.8% in January. “Stricter standards, lower demand for commercial and industrial loans, less favorable macroeconomic conditions, reduced risk tolerance, deterioration in the value of collateral and concerns about funding costs and banks’ liquidity positions were among the key words and phrases that emerged from this survey”detailed this morning the same Ipek Ozkardeskaya.
Another cause for concern is the US debt ceiling. Avoid at all costs a possible defect. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sounded the alarm again, saying a non-raise would be a ” economic disaster “. Time is running out because, according to Janet Yellen’s calculations, the government would run out of money to pay its bills by June 1, almost two months earlier than Goldman Sachs economists had expected. To avoid a national debt default, Congress must vote to raise or suspend the $31.4 trillion limit before the Treasury runs out of emergency funding. Joe Biden invited Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy (Tuesday), Democratic House Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and Senate Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy to the White House today. Republican leader Mitch McConnell.
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On the secondary debt market, the rate of one-month Treasury bills rose to 5.36%, even though the Treasury Department reduced the size of its very short-term debt issues to four and eight weeks.
Imports in surprise sharp drop in April
Little information from the business side. Among the biggest releases of the day are luxury or cosmetics companies, like Dry (-2.7%) or L’Oreal (-1.3%). Another heavyweight of the Cac 40, TotalEnergies lost 1.3% while oil prices fell almost 2%, below 76 dollars a barrel for Brent.
Crude imports from China, at 10.36 million barrels per day, fell 16% in April compared to March, when they were at their highest since June 2020. Note however, as recalled by the According to Bloomberg news agency, Chinese refiners typically carry out maintenance in April and May, which affects crude imports. That said, the recovery in the world’s second-largest economy remains fragile, as evidenced by the latest figures from China Customs. Global imports accelerated their decline in April (-7.9% over one year after -1.4% in March when economists were expecting an upturn (-0.2% according to the Bloomberg consensus).
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