Strongest El Niño events on record point to a colder and wetter winter for Houston from December through February, with historical data showing a roughly 70 to 77 percent correlation for below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation, Click2Houston reported.
James Carter Senior News Editor brings you a veteran journalist’s view on how global climate signals translate right down to Southeast Texas pavement. When we look past standard seasonal shifts into the heavy-hitting climate anomalies, the historical ledger opens up. Since monitoring began in 1950, 71 percent of El Niño winters in Houston trended colder than average, while 77 percent brought wetter conditions.
What past winters reveal
The strongest El Niño episodes on record—specifically the winters of 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16—share a roughly 70/30 split favoring colder, wetter outcomes. Yet each of these heavyweights carried a distinct personality. The 1982/83 winter ranked as the 25th-coldest in 137 years of local weather records, while the 1997/98 event ranked as the 17th-wettest.
An unusually warm mass of Pacific ocean water off the West Coast of Canada and the United States—widely known as “The Blob”—disrupted the jet stream. That thermal anomaly steered atmospheric rivers and heavy rain toward western Canada instead of delivering the typical southern winter pattern.
How December shapes up
Long-range outlooks for December are aligning with standard El Niño expectations. European model forecasts show blue shading over Texas, indicating temperatures are expected to drop below normal for the start of meteorological winter.
Another similar warming event could potentially inject additional cold air into Texas during February. This year’s El Niño is peaking much earlier than the 1982/83 event, setting the stage for an active stretch of weather.
What snow forecasts suggest
Making a snow forecast months in advance remains a gamble, but some meteorologists are willing to take the risk. Private forecasting company meteorologist Joe Bastardi of WeatherBell is projecting 1.5 inches of snow for Houston this winter, Click2Houston reported. Bastardi also forecasts snow along the I-10 corridor from San Antonio eastward toward Jacksonville, Florida, alongside 2 inches for Dallas and 9 inches for Lubbock.
While historic winters like 1997/98 brought snow all the way down to the Rio Grande Valley, and local residents recall snowfall along Buffalo Bayou in January 2025, official snow forecasts require closer observation as winter deepens.
Why spring matters next
A transition out of El Niño is projected between March and April, shifting the jet stream and regional weather patterns. That transition could create a setup favoring more severe weather across Southeast Texas next spring, followed by an active hurricane season.
For now, residents may want to keep winter coats accessible and umbrellas ready as the region enters the peak of a powerful global climate cycle.
