Heavy rains are intensifying across Eastern Africa, displacing nearly 170,000 people in Somalia and triggering widespread flood alerts as a potentially record-breaking El Niño gathers strength.
Regional Rains and Flooding Risks
Above-average rainfall is already recorded across Somalia, southern and south-eastern Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, Rwanda and Burundi, according to a flash update released on November 12, 2026. The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre reported wetter-than-normal conditions earlier in October, with more than 100 mm falling in ten days across south-eastern Ethiopia and neighbouring areas.
While the rains are expected to improve water availability and crop conditions, they also heighten the risk of flash and riverine flooding along the Juba, Shabelle, and Tana river basins. Meanwhile, parts of Ethiopia and South Sudan continue to face worsening drought conditions following below-average rainfall between May and October.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expects this El Niño to peak towards the end of 2026, with forecasts showing a nearly 100 percent chance of persisting through February 2027. The WMO forecasts sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific may rise to 3.8°C above average during November 2026 to January 2027, which would be the highest since records began.
Dry Conditions Threaten West African Electricity and Water Supplies
In West Africa, the danger is dry. The Ghana Meteorological Agency has warned of a hotter, drier season from November to April 2027, with heat stress peaking between February and April. The agency said that this season’s electricity depends mainly on water already stored in Lake Volta, which stood at 266.57 feet on November 2, 2026, 26.57 feet above its 240-foot minimum operating level.
WaterAid Canada research reveals that coastal West African cities like Lagos and Monrovia could experience significant water shortages during this event. The analysis, based on 44 years of rainfall data from 1982 to 2025, shows that these cities have experienced drier-than-normal conditions during previous strong El Niño events.
“El Niño does not have to become a water and sanitation emergency,” WaterAid's Senior Policy Analyst on Water Security, Patience Mukuyu, said.
European Union Mobilises Humanitarian Funding for Disaster Preparedness
To mitigate the crisis, the European Union is mobilising €13.5 million in humanitarian funding for anticipation and early action across Eastern and Southern Africa. The package includes €6 million for Somalia to support evacuation site preparedness, emergency cash assistance, and health services, alongside €1 million for Kenya and €1 million for Uganda to address food insecurity and disaster readiness. An additional €5.5 million will support anticipatory action in the Southern Africa and Indian Ocean region.
In Nairobi, sectoral ministers from the East African Community met on November 6, 2026, to endorse the EAC El Niño Emergency Preparedness and Response Plan (EAN-PREP). The meeting was attended by Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs and East African Cooperation, Mr James Millya. Mr Mmuya emphasized that climate disasters cross national borders and require joint regional action in health, infrastructure, and agriculture.
Authorities Inspect Infrastructure to Prevent Urban Water Contamination
In Dar es Salaam and Nairobi, authorities have inspected drainage channels and worked to raise latrines and bury water pipes deeper to prevent contamination as above-normal rainfall continues to threaten essential infrastructure through December.
“We should not wait for drought or water stress to materialise before we start acting. Our approach should be anticipatory: identify the risks, define the triggers that should prompt action and prepare in advance the interventions that can be activated if the anticipated conditions materialise,” WaterAid's country director Gaspar Sitefane said.
He said that sea surface temperatures had remained 0.5 degrees Celsius above average as of November 1, 2026.
