The 2026 El Niño event is forecast to peak in December and persist through February 2027, driven by sea-surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific.
Record Sea-Surface Temperatures Fuel the 2026 Event
Sea temperatures across the Eastern Pacific Ocean began rising significantly at the start of the year, supported by accumulated subsurface ocean heat and weakening low-level trade winds. Official El Niño conditions were formally validated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) during the initial week of June.
By late summer, experts warned that the “unprecedented” El Niño could become the largest event since the 19th century, earning it the label of a ‘Godzilla’ or ‘Super’ El Niño. In its monthly bulletin published on October 12, 2026, the Copernicus Climate Change Service announced that September’s average sea-surface temperature reached 21.05°C, marking the highest on record for the month amid strengthening El Niño conditions.
A rise from an average +1.6°C above normal in June 2026 to +2.5°C above normal in August was recorded by the Niño 3.4 index, which tracks sea-surface temperature anomalies across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. For the October-November-December period, the seasonal average anomaly is forecast to reach approximately +3.7°C. That figure surpasses the previous record of +2.6°C set during the November 2015 to January 2016 period, representing the highest level since observations began.
Global Meteorological Projections and the 2027 Timeline
The WMO relies on coordinated ocean buoy, satellite, and radiosonde data gathered from 13 national and international centers to track the progression of the weather phenomenon. According to WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, El Niño has firmly taken hold and is intensifying rapidly, with projections pointing to a near-100 per cent probability that it will continue through February 2027, potentially ranking among the most powerful occurrences since 1950 at the latest.
Celeste Saulo, WMO Secretary-General, explained that El Niño does not generate fresh planetary heat, but instead liberates thermal energy previously stowed by the ocean beneath its surface, which is why a robust event frequently lines up with one of the warmest recorded years, such as 2024. She added that the ocean it is drawing from is the warmest we have ever measured, meaning there is simply more heat available to release.
While the peak is projected for December, the event is not expected to officially end until the spring of 2027. Experts warn that the lingering atmospheric and oceanic impacts will likely stretch further, positioning next year to potentially become the hottest on record.
| Monitoring Period | Niño 3.4 Index Anomaly | Key Meteorological Status |
|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | +1.6°C above normal | WMO officially confirms El Niño conditions are underway |
| August 2026 | +2.5°C above normal | Substantial increase in equatorial Pacific sea temperatures |
| September 2026 | 21.05°C average | Highest global monthly sea-surface temperature on record (Copernicus) |
| October – December 2026 (Forecast) | +3.7°C seasonal average | Projected peak exceeding the 2015-2016 record of +2.6°C |
| February – Spring 2027 (Forecast) | Persistent anomalies | Likely duration through early 2027 before dissipation |
Transnational Agricultural Risks and Climate Clash
While El Niño’s most direct weather impacts occur in the tropics, the transnational knock-on effects stretch into international supply chains and European import markets. The IHE Delft Institute for Water Education in the Netherlands has tracked vulnerable regions where staple crops face severe disruption.
In Nicaragua, maize and bean crops are at risk of failure in fragile areas, threatening local income loss and food insecurity. Meanwhile, a lack of rain and diminished river flows mean that irrigated crops in Colombia, Northeast Brazil, and India face strict water restrictions or heavy reliance on groundwater, raising the specter of local overexploitation and export shortages.
These natural anomalies intersect with long-term anthropogenic climate change. Human-caused global warming driven by fossil fuel emissions has pushed global average surface temperatures 1.3°C to 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels. While typical El Niño events independently add roughly 0.2°C of warming, their impacts are compounded by an already heated planet. Recent research suggests that climate change is turbocharging El Niño events, making them 36 per cent stronger than before the industrial era.
