“Taiwan Strait”, “U.S. Aircraft Carriers and Submarines”, Rugged Terrain Hindering the Chinese Military’s Path
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U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi arrived in Taipei on the evening of August 2nd. It was the first visit to Taiwan in 25 years by the Speaker of the House of Representatives, who is second in line to the U.S. president.
China is ready to take military retaliation for Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, and began military drills on the night of the 2nd, including shooting drills using live ammunition. From the 4th, exercises will be held in six locations surrounding Taiwan, and ballistic missiles will also be launched. Even after Pelosi leaves Taiwan, she continues to threaten and step up military pressure.
The “Taiwan Emergency” mentioned in the Defense White Paper
With Pelosi’s recent visit to Taiwan, China-Taiwan relations have become even more tense.
In the white paper, Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi mentioned Taiwan for the first time in the opening words of the white paper. In addition, the number of pages devoted to the situation in Taiwan has doubled in the main body of the white paper, and for the first time, Taiwan’s scenario was also taken up.
The white paper predicts that a Chinese invasion will occur in three stages:
(1) Panic of the Taiwanese people due to the concentration of troops on the Chinese coast and the “cognitive warfare”
(2) Missile launches and cyberattacks on important facilities
(3) Landing by amphibious assault ship, etc.
If China were to invade Taiwan, I believe that (1) and (2) would be possible, but (3) would be unrealistic given the current capabilities of the Chinese military. This article will focus on the reasons for this.
China to attack, the biggest obstacle is the “Taiwan Strait”
Does the Chinese military have the ability to occupy Taiwan? In conclusion, the probability is zero. The reason is that the current military strength of the Chinese military makes it difficult even to cross the Taiwan Strait.
Indeed, China’s military power overwhelms Taiwan. The total active military strength and the number of tanks are actually 10 times that of the Taiwanese army, the number of large surface combatants is 3 times, and the number of fighters and attack aircraft is about 4 times. Therefore, at first glance, the occupation of Taiwan seems to be a simple matter. However, occupying Taiwan will not be easy. This is because the Taiwan Strait is the biggest obstacle for China, which is on the offensive side.
The Taiwan Strait is 130-180km wide. No matter how strong the Chinese army is, it must cross this wide strait to invade Taiwan. On the flip side, this is Taiwan’s greatest advantage.
The Chinese Navy (part of which is the Army), which transports the Chinese Army, has about 370 amphibious ships, including small and medium-sized amphibious ships. Of these, only 10 are large landing ships. The Chinese military has many amphibious ships, but the problem is that not all amphibious ships can cross the Taiwan Strait. Only about 20% of the amphibious ships (over 500 tons of full load displacement) are expected to be able to cross the Taiwan Strait.
Amphibious assault ship launching ceremony held in Shanghai, China (Photo: Xinhua/Aflo)
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In addition to landing ships, requisitioned civilian ferries may also be used. However, in order to carry out transportation by ferry, it is necessary to send Chinese troops to Taiwan in advance and secure the port because it is necessary to use a port where large ships can dock.
It may be possible to secure the port by storming the port with airborne troops transported by Air Force transport planes, but it is difficult to imagine that the Taiwanese military will easily surrender the port, and the airborne force alone will not be able to secure the port for a long time. It’s hard to keep secure.
For this reason, in the early stages of the war, only about 30,000 soldiers will be able to cross the Taiwan Strait. However, there is no guarantee that they will be able to land in Taiwan without incident.