“Taylor Swift is huge and unique.” Those who don’t know any better might think that Gavin Newsom, the Democratic governor of California, had just experienced a particularly impressive performance of Swift’s ‘Eras Tour’. However, Newsom is not interested in the pop star’s musical exploits, but in her political potential. “It’s honestly powerful what she was able to accomplish just by activating and convincing young people that they have a voice and a choice in the next election,” Newsom said in late September. The Democrats hope that an endorsement from Swift can give President Joe Biden’s sagging popularity a positive boost. Gwen Nisbett (University of Northern Texas) examined Swift’s past endorsements and tempers expectations: “Celebrity endorsements generally do not have extraordinary consequences.”
65,000 new voters
Nisbett studied Swift’s endorsement of two Democratic candidates in her home state of Tennessee in 2018. The pop star also called on her followers to register to vote. In the 24 hours that followed, 65,000 voters registered across the US, including more than 2,000 in Tennessee. “Research shows that a small request to register as a voter or to look up information about politicians often results in changes in behavior,” says Nisbett. However, they normally do not trigger electoral landslides. Tennessee did not have exceptional turnout in 2018 and the Republican candidate against whom Swift was most vocal ultimately won her election.
Although her popularity has exploded since then, Democrats should not see an endorsement from Swift as a panacea that provides an automatic election victory. “When it comes to voting, a celebrity is just one data point that people base their choices on,” Nisbett points out. “Family members and friends have a stronger influence.” Celebrities can steer elections in a certain direction with their support. When Oprah Winfrey supported the campaign of future President Barack Obama during the 2008 Democratic primaries, which, according to researchers, resulted in a million votes and a strong boost for his campaign. However, a primary election is a different ball game than the presidential election.
A bakery even makes cakes with Taylor Swift supporting her love’s team. — © ap
Sometimes celebrity endorsements even have a negative effect, shows research from 2016. Celebrities for whom the public feels little sympathy have a negative effect on undecided voters. Swift is one of the most beloved public figures in the US today, especially among Democratic voters and political independents. Republicans are much more negative towards the artist, around whom pro-Trump figures have been concocting wild conspiracy theories in recent weeks. Her relationship with American football star Travis Kelce is said to be a plot by Democrats to get Swift to express her support for Biden during the Super Bowl on Sunday. More than 100 million Americans watch the finals of the NFL, the national American football competition, every year.
Female electorate
Her relationship with Kelce gave Swift a lot of name recognition among NFL fans. “In that respect they are a dream couple,” says Simone Driessen (Erasmus University Rotterdam). In recent years, the Dutch researcher has studied the relationship between Swift and her fans, and especially how they respond to her political positions. “It’s the All-American football player and the girl next door who are together. She also reaches a target group she previously had no contact with: male conservative football fans. They are not her most logical fans, but perhaps there are some who will look at politics differently because of her presence.” Nisbett also thinks this is an interesting evolution: “The NFL suddenly has more female viewers. Is that a taste of her impact on women voters? Possibly, and they turned out to be very important during recent elections.”
Swift’s fan base overlaps with a group that is otherwise difficult to attract to the polls, Driessen says. “Taylor Swift’s fans range widely in age, but her most avid fans are young women between the ages of 25 and 35.” Biden’s popularity among young voters has plummeted in recent months. Winning a few thousand votes, as in 2018, does not seem impressive, but “in some states you barely need 200,000 votes to make a difference. That’s two sold-out Taylor Swift concerts. You really shouldn’t underestimate what she can achieve. But we should not overestimate that either. She won’t be standing next to you in line when you go to vote. Her support could give Biden’s campaign a boost. This way he is seen in a more positive light and he can benefit from her star power.”
“Research shows that celebrities who are known to care strongly about a particular issue have more credibility when they speak out about it,” says Nisbett. Swift has been profiling herself as progressive for years and has mainly garnered support for her political statements. “Her fans also responded very positively in 2018,” Driessen explains. “Many find it nice to see that someone with so much impact dares to make that statement.”