Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton entered the final weekend of a Texas U.S. Senate race as polls showed a close contest, trading sharp barbs over outside mega-donors and economic strain as early voting concluded ahead of the November 3, 2026 election.
Talarico Targets Elon Musk and Outside Spending at Campus Rallies
As the campaign sprint reached its final days, Democratic nominee James Talarico took direct aim at tech billionaire Elon Musk during a packed rally at Texas A&M University’s Aggie Park. Standing before hundreds of students and supporters on Friday, October 30, the Austin state representative framed the contest in populist terms, contrasting his grassroots fundraising with his opponent’s financial backing.
Musk has contributed millions of dollars to the Senate Leadership Fund, which transferred the same amount to Texas PAC, a Republican super PAC supporting Paxton, according to federal filings. Reporting from the Texas Tribune based on Federal Elections Commission filings notes that Musk’s total contributions to support Paxton have surpassed millions of dollars, amid plans to build a massive Terafab
facility in neighboring Grimes County.
U.S. Senate candidate @jamestalarico (D-TX) on Elon Musk involvement in Texas senate race: "If you've gotten lies in your mailbox, that was Elon. If you've received a text message, saying scary things about me with scary black and white photos, that was Elon too." pic.twitter.com/yPZjX4zCdR
Our movement is funded by 1.6 million individuals who have donated their hard-earned money to this campaign; Ken Paxton is funded by one dude.
Talarico also hit the campaign trail in Dallas at the Kay Bailey Hutchison Convention Center alongside prominent faith leaders, warning supporters that outside mega-donors are pouring hundreds of millions into the race to influence Texan land, water, and tax policy. Earlier in the week, his campaign launched statewide television advertising tying Paxton to corruption and promising relief for household costs.
Ken Paxton Warns Voters Against a Far-Left Agenda in Fort Worth
Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton countered with dire warnings of his own, rallying conservative voters on Saturday morning in Fort Worth. Backed by Donald Trump’s endorsement, Paxton cast his opponent as the front-man for a far-left agenda and Washington powerbrokers like House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.
The left in this country keeps getting more and more radical.
To shore up momentum over the final weekend, Paxton brought Governor Greg Abbott and Senator Ted Cruz onto the trail, reinforcing his core message focused heavily on border security and opposition to federal Democratic leadership.
Polling Tightens as Early Voting Closes Across Texas
Public opinion polls show a razor-thin margin as early voting wrapped up on October 30. A Fox News poll conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research from October 15 to 19 found the two candidates tied at 49 percent among 1,398 likely voters. While Talarico led in five of the six public polls released over the past week, a poll by Quantus Insights surveyed 1,221 likely voters and found Paxton leading 48.7 percent to 47.6 percent.
Analysts note that economic anxieties, the cost of living, and voter dissatisfaction regarding the state’s data center boom have powered the Democrat’s insurgent bid in a state that has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994.
| Pollster | Survey Dates | Sample Size | Talarico Support | Paxton Support |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | Oct 17–21 | 400 likely voters | 51% | 49% |
| Emerson College/Nexstar | Late October | 1,000 likely voters | 48% | 46% |
Outreach and Turnout Dynamics Shape the Final Sprint
Beyond the top-line numbers, both campaigns have focused intensely on demographic outreach and base mobilization. Talarico worked to shore up support among Black voters following a competitive Democratic primary, building on strong polling numbers within major metropolitan hubs like Harris County while addressing calls from local lawmakers for deeper community engagement.
Turnout across Texas has blown past historical midterm levels as early balloting concluded. With control of the U.S. Senate hanging in the balance, both parties view the Lone Star State as a decisive battleground where the outcome will reshape federal legislative power.
James talarico says Texas oil and gas workers are "destroying the planet" and it's "time to transition" the industry."Fossil fuels are destroying the planet. … I want Texas to be number one in renewables going forward in the 21st century, right? Right now, it feels a little… pic.twitter.com/SPZtVP4Syf
NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS TEXAS SENATE POLL | October 13, 2026Our latest survey finds Ken Paxton and James Talarico essentially tied in Texas’ U.S. Senate race, with 23 days remaining until Election Day at the close of fieldwork.📊 U.S. Senate Ballot🔴 Ken Paxton (R): 47.2%🔵… pic.twitter.com/J89zLKaNsk
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More on Texas Senate
NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS TEXAS SENATE AND GOVERNOR POLL | October 30, 2026Our final survey of Texas finds Ken Paxton leading James Talarico by 1.1 points for U.S. Senate and Greg Abbott leading Gina Hinojosa by 4.9 for Governor, a week out from Election Day.📊 U.S. Senate Ballot… pic.twitter.com/rpwNT3snRl
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