2023-10-12 15:00:00
Who would you vote for if the elections were held today? Eight months before a mega-election where all parliamentary assemblies will be renewed, RTBF and La Libre have joined forces with the Kantar institute, to find out “The choice of the Belgians”.
A survey, revealed in all the IPM group media, which makes it possible to determine the “electoral health” of the different political forces in our democratic space.
Wallonia: the PTB in strength, Eco in decline
Voting intentions in Wallonia. ©EDA Press
First implacable observation. In the sample of Walloon voters surveyed, the three traditional parties seem to benefit from surprising stability.
With 27.2% of voting intentions (+1.1% compared to the 2019 elections), the PS remains the leading party in the south of the country.
If the presidency of Georges-Louis Bouchez is sometimes contested within the liberal party, the MR remains extremely stable with 20.6% of voting intentions (+0.1%).
On the other hand, Les Engagés do not seem to benefit from the intense work of rebuilding the party. With 11.1% voting intentions, they would only gain 0.4% of voters compared to the results of the cdH during the last election.
On the other hand, and this is one of the major lessons of the barometer, the PTB seems to confirm its electoral form with 19.2% of voting intentions (+5.4%).
Conversely, Écolo with 11.6% of the vote would lose many voters in Wallonia.
Brussels: the MR would take leadership
Voting intentions in Brussels. ©EDA Press
The leading opposition party in Brussels, the Reform Movement has embarked on a strategy to reconquer the Capital by wanting to better reflect the diversity of Brussels on its lists and by attracting certain well-known personalities, including Hadja Lahbib.
However, according to the survey, the MR becomes the leading political force in the capital with 19.7% of voting intentions.
As in Wallonia, the PTB seems to appeal to Brussels residents. With 15.3% of voting intentions, it is now close behind the PS and its 18.8%. Défi, a party with a strong presence in Brussels, would experience a clear decline, going from 10.3% to 6.9% of voting intentions.
Note that in Brussels, the comparison between the voting intentions expressed in this poll and the results of the last election is not easy. In 2019, socialists and ecologists presented joint lists in the capital.
Flanders: the far right becomes leader
Voting intentions in Flanders. ©EDA Press
In Flanders, the Vlaams Belang, a far-right party, is credited with 23.3% of voting intentions. An increase of 4.7% compared to the last election.
But the most significant increase concerns Vooruit. Despite the controversies, Conner Rousseau’s party is now credited with 16.1% of voting intentions (+5.3%).
Conversely, the Flemish democratic nationalists of the N-VA are in sharp decline and today only attract 20.4% of voters (-5.1%) compared to 2019.
Finally, the Open VLD, party of Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, crashed in the polls and recorded the biggest drop. Only 7.9% (-5.6%) of Flemish voters would still be ready to vote for the Liberals, who find themselves well below the CD&V, and in a pocket handkerchief with the PVDA (PTB) and Groen.
Note technique
This survey was carried out by the Kantar institute via an online survey from September 10 to October 9 among 436 voters living in Wallonia, 566 voters living in Flanders and 545 voters living in Brussels with the right to vote in the 2024 national elections. .
Their representativeness was weighted according to the Belgian population according to age, level of education, professional status and province. The maximum margin of error is 4.4% in all three regions.
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