2023-07-07 15:28:06
The Upper House of Ethiopia’s Parliament on Wednesday approved the creation of a new state-region in Ethiopia. This new fragmentation of the country, undermined by ethnic claims, undermines the unifying desires that Abiy Ahmed advocated when he came to power in 2018 and marks a crisis of federalism in the country.
Published on: 07/07/2023 – 17:28Modified on: 07/07/2023 – 17:33
“The creation of a new regional state in Ethiopia will calm down and ultimately create new tensions,” said Roland Marchal, researcher at the Sciences Po International Research Center (Ceri). The Upper House of Ethiopia’s Parliament on Wednesday July 5 “unanimously” approved the creation of a 12th regional state, called “Southern Ethiopia Region”, from the Regional State of Nations, Nationalities and Peoples of the South (SNNPR). “Ethiopia follows the model of Nigeria, which began in the 1960s with three regions and which today has 36, continues the French sociologist. This phenomenon of subdivision is a sign of a crisis of federalism in Ethiopia. .”
The current Constitution adopted in 1995, four years after the fall of the military-Marxist Derg regime, had divided Ethiopia into nine regional states, divided according to ethno-linguistic criteria and endowed with broad powers within a federal system.
The SNNPR divided into four regions
Since current Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018, three new regional states have emerged after consultation by referendum. The Sidama region in 2019, then the Southwest region in March 2022, also separated from the SNNPR to which they belonged. We must now reckon with the Region of Southern Ethiopia, which has also seceded, cutting this former territory into four parts.
While the other regions of Ethiopia are very largely ethnically homogeneous, this southern region, made up of 56 ethnic groups, which have been arbitrarily grouped together within the SNNPR, has regularly been the scene of tension and violence in recent years. “When the central power does not manage to overcome the difficulties, it opens the way, via referendums, to new administrative structures, notes Roland Marchal. and the inter-ethnic inequalities that are at the origin of the claims. Consequence: other ethnic groups will be dissatisfied and in turn ask for their independence. It is an endless process.”
A constitutional fragmentation
Such a fragmentation of the country is made possible thanks to article 47 of the Constitution, which authorizes each “nation, nationality or people belonging to one of the regional States (…) to form, at any time, own regional State, subject to the organization of a referendum and a favorable result.
Except that all referendum inclinations have all been stifled by previous governments, led by Hailemariam Desalegn or Meles Zenawi. Anxious to display his reformist will when he came to power, Abiy Ahmed has freed over time from many territorial and identity claims. Even if it means putting himself at odds with the image of unifier of the country that he displayed in his beginnings.
“These divisions are the sign of the failure of the policy of unity advocated by the head of government. Put to the test of the reality on the ground, in particular with the war in Tigray, he had to give up his creed of ‘ all behind Abiy Ahmed’ and abandon his desire for unity to return to a more pragmatic policy”, explains Patrick Ferras, teacher at Iris Sup’ and Sciences Po and specialist in the Horn of Africa.
“Divide and rule”
These new administrative divisions also have serious advantages for the government. “The central power can better take into account the realities of the actors on the ground and better understand the difficulties thanks to this direct link. And in a more cynical way, it also allows the government to have a much greater stranglehold on the territory, abounds Patrick Ferras. It’s a way of dividing and conquering.”
For the inhabitants of these new regions, this new administrative division also has advantages. “These new regions have more power because they have a direct link with the central State, continues the doctor in geopolitics. And then they also acquire direct funding without going through the endowments that the large federal region is willing to provide. grant them.”
This is the reason why the inhabitants of the SNNPR region turned out massively at the polls during the referendum organized on 6th February last. The “yes” majority won, with 95.42% against 4.58% of “no”.
Read alsoReferendum in Ethiopia: Abiy Ahmed put to the test by ethnic claims
Persistent ethnic tensions
But the advantages of such a division stop there. “We must not believe that these new distributions will settle the violence. Ethnic tensions will always be present”, advances Roland Marchal. They even risk bringing in their wake new subjects of discord, opening up new breaches. “The choice of the capital, that of the portfolio or that of ethnic groups to represent elected officials, risks fueling the already numerous claims, underlined Sabine Planel, researcher at the Institute for Research for Development (IRD) and specialist in Ethiopia in an article of February 6. The expectations of each of the ethnic groups will be extremely difficult to meet and will lead to increased local conflict.
It remains to be seen how other regions might evolve in the months and years to come. Ethnic minorities from regions such as Oromo or Amhara, real powder kegs for the government, could also draw inspiration from the model of the SNNPR region to demand a new administrative deal. “This would again be a very interesting operation for the government, which is always trying to divide and therefore perhaps weaken these traditionally conflicting regions”, concludes Patrick Ferras.
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