Madrid
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The transition to the electric vehicle to suppose a complete transformation of the industrial fabric in Spain, with its corresponding repercussions on employment. According to the report made by
Boston Consulting Group for the Business Association for the Development and Promotion of Electric Mobility
(AEDIVE) presented yesterday, more than 21,000 jobs are at stake, another 35,000 will experience substantial changes due to the arrival of the electric car, and some 90,000 will need specific training to adapt to the new reality of vehicle production.
The study contemplates an evolution until the year 2030 in which the production volume is expected to remain constant at approximately 2.4 million units per year. This represents a total decrease in production of -16.3% in 11 years, which implies an annual decrease of -1.6% and the loss of 21,000 jobs.
Annual sales volume is forecast to remain constant at 1.5 million cars.
Therefore, the automobile fleet in Spain would increase only 1.1% per year over the next ten years, which means 32 million cars registered in 2030, compared to 28 million in 2020.
As for the positive figures, it is anticipated that 17,000 jobs will need to be filled in jobs related to electrical infrastructure.
The switch to electric vehicle is another trend analyzed, and thanks to which the loss of jobs can be offset by the generation of other types of jobs.
Among the main conclusions, the report highlights that the transition to the electric vehicle will generate a significant transfer of jobs, which will help offset the negative effects of trends such as loss of production volume, productivity and, above all, relocation, “promoting the transition of jobs towards sectors such as energy and recharging infrastructure, which will have a great need for labor in the coming years”, as explained during the presentation Marc Schmidt, responsible for Energy, Industrial Goods, Operations and People and Organization in Boston Consulting Group.
Thus, in 2020, around 92% of the vehicles produced in Spain it was equipped exclusively with a combustion engine. This proportion will drop dramatically in 2030 to just 2%. By 2030, the volume of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) will be around 68%. The remaining 30% will be hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). This means an increase in the production of 52% per year of electric vehicles with batteries in Spain.
Offset employment gains and losses
This transition towards electrified vehicles manages to counteract the losses in the automotive sector thanks to the jobs generated in batteries and recharging infrastructures.
According Isabel del Olmo, head of Sustainable Mobility in
IDAE “If we analyze the absolute data, the activity generated in new positions is not only going to prevent it from being lost, but the final balance may be positive.”
But nevertheless, Jordi Carmona, head of the UGT FICA Automotive Sector, recognizes that with this report it is deduced that “there will be job losses due to the transition to the electric vehicle, as well as due to the general changes that will occur in mobility”. According to Carmona, this will affect the 350,000 workers that depend directly on the production of vehicles in Spain, since “there will be less production of vehicles, greater robotization and less need for labor in the production phases”.
It is expected that digitization and automation promote a constant increase in productivity over the next ten years, approximately 0.4% per year. However, this improvement has a negative effect on the workforce, especially the less qualified. A decrease of 4,000 workers is estimated.
for them to be compensated the negative impact of job loss On the positive side, the report considers it essential to promote the development of the electric vehicle even more in order to have a positive influence on increasing the volume of production, capturing more models of cars and other electric vehicles for Spanish factories.
Also, it will be necessary a training plan that allows workers to adapt to the new needs of the industry. It is estimated that, in total, 165,000 jobs will require specific qualifications. “To achieve this transition, the participation of public administration, companies and people is needed,” said Schmidt.
Too it will be necessary to develop a complete value chain of the propulsion battery in our country. To date, there are no industrial-scale manufacturing plants, the so-called gigafactories. The impact of whether or not to produce the entire battery value chain has a very high repercussion on employment, with some 8,000 jobs at stake.
Countries with lower labor costs
Another of the trends detected in the study commissioned by AEDIVE contemplates the transfer of jobs, especially to countries with lower labor costs. In this sense, a relocation of jobs from Spain to other European countries is detected, assuming an average loss of 1.5% jobs per year.
But nevertheless Spain starts from a privileged situation to achieve the complete manufacturing cycle, thanks to the presence of raw materials such as rare earths in Campo de Montiel (Ciudad Real) and Mount Galiñeiro (Pontevedra) or the San José lithium mine (Extremadura)
The study highlights that the industrialization of reuse and recycling should be promoted of batteries, since it constitutes a potential source of new jobs. He calculates that employment in this sector could be increased by almost 20%.
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