The Essequibo Referendum: Analyzing the Implications for Venezuela and Guyana

2023-12-04 04:45:00
The referendum for Essequibo in Venezuela passed with few voters in the voting centers (REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria)

Venezuelan electoral authorities announced on Sunday the approval of the five questions of a referendum called by the government of President Nicolás Maduro and his allies to claim sovereignty over a large swath of neighboring Guyana, arguing that the oil and mineral-rich territory was stolen. when the border was drawn more than a century ago.

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Guyana considers that the referendum is a step towards annexation and that the vote has its inhabitants nervous.

In the consultation, Venezuelans were asked if they supported the establishment of a new state in the disputed territory, known as Essequibo, in which Venezuela will grant citizenship to current and future residents, rejecting the jurisdiction of the United Nations’ highest court to resolve the disagreement between the two South American countries.

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It is not clear how the Venezuelan authorities intend to implement this idea of ​​exercising jurisdiction over that territory once it is declared part of Venezuela, currently made up of 23 states and a capital district.

Although the turnout of voters seemed very low in the elections, Elvis Amoroso, president of the board of the National Electoral Council (CNE), indicated that 10,554,320 votes were counted in the elections, not counting those that were cast during an extension. two hours of the vote.

The president of the National Electoral Council (CNE) of Venezuela, Elvis Amoroso, reported more than 10 million votes after the close of the day, without specifying whether it was the number of voters or votes counted among the five questions of the questionnaire (EFE /ARCHIVE)

It was “an obvious and overwhelming victory for Yes,” added Amoroso, a former pro-government legislator and close collaborator of Maduro.

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In a tour by The Associated Press to voting centers in the Venezuelan capital, lines of 30 people could be seen and in some of them the voters went directly to the empty tables, in contrast to other processes when from the early hours of the morning hundreds of people gathered to vote.

In a statement prior to the closing time of the voting centers, originally scheduled for 6:00 p.m. (2200 GMT), Amoroso indicated that the decision to extend was a consequence of “the massive participation that we have seen.”

In contrast, Ángela Albornoz, 62, a member of the ruling party’s grassroots organizations known as “community chiefs,” told the AP that she estimated that between 23% and 24% of the total voters came to her office. voting center in western Caracas. That participation figure is below her expectations for a process that brought together all Venezuelans, “regardless of political color.”

Next, in an event accompanied by his followers, Maduro celebrated the results and stated that it is “a historic referendum that has put Venezuela on its feet” and now it is time to “manage to recover what the liberators left us, Guayana Esequiba.”

The dictator, Nicolás Maduro, participated in a rally to celebrate the results of the consultation (REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria)

The president invited Venezuelans to “unite everything that can be united.”

The practical and legal implications of the referendum remain unclear.

The president of Guyana, Mohamed Irfaan Ali, acknowledged on Sunday that many Guyanese view the referendum with suspicion and in a message to the nation he tried to calm them down.

He stated that “they have nothing to fear in the coming hours, days and months.” He added that Guyana is using diplomacy as its “first line of defense” and is continually working to ensure that its “borders remain intact.”

“I am not going to get into Venezuela’s internal politics or its policy formulation, but I want to warn Venezuela that this is an opportunity for them to demonstrate maturity, an opportunity for them to demonstrate responsibility, and we call them on. once again to join us in… allowing the rule of law to operate and determine the outcome of this controversy,” Ali said.

Despite the few voters, the Maduro regime reported “millions” of votes for the “yes” in the consultative referendum (Europa Press/Juan Carlos Hernandez)

Venezuela and Guyana dispute the so-called Essequibo, a continental territory of about 159,500 square kilometers (61,600 square miles), which the Venezuelans have claimed as theirs since 1897, since that region was under their jurisdiction during the Spanish colony.

Since 2015, both countries have faced successive frictions as a result of oil exploration carried out by a subsidiary of the American company Exxon Mobil in part of the disputed area.

The Venezuelan ruler has declared that the oil concessions granted by Georgetown in maritime areas off the Essequibo are illegal, arguing that Guyana does not have jurisdiction in those maritime areas that are still undelimited.

Maduro insists on Venezuela’s historical position of resolving the dispute through negotiations within the framework of the so-called Geneva Agreement signed with the United Kingdom on February 17, 1966, just 98 days before achieving its independence. At that time, London recognized Venezuela’s claim, opening the possibility of finding a diplomatic and satisfactory settlement for the parties.

In 2016, the now former UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon reinforced the good offices process, which dated back to 1990, and warned then that if there was no significant progress in the Essequibo case by the end of 2017, it should brought before the International Court of Justice. That day finally arrived.

In 2018, Guyana launched a case before the ICJ to ratify the ruling from 1899, when Guyana was a British colony in the region. In April, the Court issued a ruling against Venezuela and declared itself competent to continue with the case.

Maduro has repeatedly urged UN Secretary General António Guterres to renew his good offices to reactivate bilateral dialogue. Guyana rules out that option.

The Venezuelan opposition reported low participation in the referendum called by the Maduro regime due to the dispute with Guyana (REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria)

The Guyanese government – ​​which classifies the Venezuelan initiative as an “existential threat” designed to pave the way for the annexation of two-thirds of its country – asked the International Court of Justice on November 14 to urgently issue a series of orders, one of them being to stop the referendum in its current form and eliminate three of the five questions.

The court on Friday ordered Venezuela to refrain from adopting measures that would alter Guyana’s control over the Essequibo, although it did not explicitly rule on the referendum.

Despite cataloging the ICJ ruling as a victory, assuming that the highest UN court rejected Guyana’s requests, Venezuela insisted that “in no way does it imply” the recognition of the highest UN court as a means of resolving the dispute. territorial. This position, established in one of the questions, was supported by the voters, according to official figures from the electoral authority, with 95.4% of the votes.

Contrary to the government’s position, there are many who maintain that Venezuela has sufficient titles to support its claim, so the possibility of obtaining a favorable ruling in the dispute should not be ruled out. Some analysts fear that the intention of the third question is to use the affirmative answer as a guarantee to abandon the process initiated in court.

“Venezuela has a very important opportunity to assert its position in the most important judicial body in the world,” political analyst and internationalist Lauren Caballero told the AP.

The university professor also pointed out that the Venezuelan government has the obligation to put together a team made up of the best historians, jurists, and diplomats with the purpose of building “a judicial strategy that allows Venezuela to recover part of that territory,” which constitutes about two thirds of Guyana.

Caballero recognized that probably not all of the territory will be recovered, and that it would be a triumph to demonstrate that the 1899 ruling is “null and void” and that would open the doors to a new bilateral negotiation and a new demarcation of borders.

The ICJ, even with Venezuela’s absence, will continue the process and eventually issue its ruling, compliance with which is mandatory and unappealable, although it may take years before it issues a final and binding ruling.

After a ruling on the land border, the highest UN court will surely also have to intervene in the delimitation of marine and underwater areas, highlighted the analyst and former ambassador of Venezuela in Guyana (1980-1984), Sadio Garavini di Turno.

(AP)

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