Recently, there has been more and more talk about the possibility of starting a Third World War. The townsfolk, as a rule, associate such forecasts with the events in Ukraine, wondering what development of the Russian military special operation can force NATO to enter this conflict, after which the unleashing of a new world war will become irreversible.
However, most experts are increasingly leaning towards a completely different scenario of the world apocalypse. And it is not associated with Europe at all. In their opinion, in its current state, it is not capable of resisting Russia for a long time. A world military conflict can only be ignited by a global confrontation between Washington and Beijing, the reason for which is Taiwan.
And now it has entered an active phase after six US congressmen, headed by the chairman of the US Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, Robert Menendez, made a previously unannounced visit to Taiwan, where they met with the President of the Republic of China (Taiwan) Tsai Ing-wen. Beijing responded to this obvious provocation with large-scale exercises that are now taking place in the airspace of Taiwan and the East China Sea, where destroyers, frigates, bombers, fighters and other large forces of the Chinese army are participating.
At the same time, the US says it will not allow the reunification of Taiwan with mainland China by military force. Beijing, in response, demands that Washington stop all official contacts with the island. And the Chinese military leadership says, according to TASS, that the PLA is ready to “smash any attempts of external interference and plans to break off the so-called independent Taiwan.”
Apparently, a number of experts are sure that the issue of a real military confrontation between Beijing and Washington in this region is just a matter of time.
In this regard, Nikolai Vavilov, one of the leading Russian sinologists, the author of the book “Chinese Power”, writes in his Telegram channel that Russia is assigned the role of a strategic ally of China in the confrontation between Washington and Beijing. That is why, in their upcoming large-scale and long-term battle for world leadership, China’s pro-Russian position should be considered not a short-term tactical, but a long-term strategic choice.
According to Vavilov, “China has been preparing for a global war with the United States for a long time and seriously.” He does everything thoroughly and consistently.
When there was no question of a Russian special operation in Ukraine – it was not even in the plans – Xi Jinping, who had already come to power in China, began the most ambitious reform of the Chinese Armed Forces in the entire history of the country. Moreover, the emphasis was on creating the world’s largest naval forces, which became a serious challenge for the United States, which has the most powerful fleet in the world.
Vavilov writes that Moscow’s support in the situation with Ukraine “is not a momentary logic of bargaining with Washington” and not at all the “insidious logic” of a double entendre, but “a strategic calculation for the next decade.”
In the logic of confrontation between the United States and China, Russia, according to Vavilov, for Beijing for decades is “the strategic rear and the most important flank.”
Nikolai Vavilov is sure that “this is precisely what justifies the general line of the state information policy of Beijing for the unconditional support of Moscow and special operations in Chinese state media and social networks. This is the reason for the growth of trade with Moscow (according to Chinese statistics) by 30% in the first quarter, despite the start of a special operation and currency fluctuations.”
Responding to those who consider Beijing a momentary ally of Russia, capable of turning away from Moscow at any moment, as it will only be beneficial, Vavilov says: so far, “all the arguments about the“ insidious ”Beijing are nothing but an attempt to place doubts in a restrained and silent ally , are not substantiated: the thesis of the President of the Russian Academy of Sciences Sergeev on the termination of cooperation in science turned out to be untenable. Refusal of Russian oil and gas, as the data show, too. The departure of the companies also turned out to be fake: the companies are here, the Chinese banks are here, and the Chinese ambassador Zhang Hanhui is calling on the Chinese to become even more active in the Russian direction. The same applies to my Chinese acquaintances in large corporations who are looking for ways to cooperate with Moscow: the dogs are barking, and the caravan is moving along the Silk Road. And he will come.”
Beijing for such a position gets quite seriously from both Europe and the United States, and this despite the fact that they are China’s largest trading markets.
The other day, one of the US senators who visited Taiwan, in a conversation with Tsai Ing-wen, said that the US would make China pay a heavy price for supporting Vladimir Putin. And when the senator was asked whether the United States would be ready to send its troops to support Taiwan if necessary, there was no firm “no”, as in the situation with Ukraine. On the contrary, the senator said: all options are being considered.
Similarly, “all options” seem to be being considered by Moscow and Beijing, including, perhaps, options for closer military-technical cooperation.