The free dollar is operated once more on the rise this Tuesday, at $301 for sale, with a gain of ten pesos or 3.4% on the day. So far in July, it rises 63 pesos or 26.5 percent. It thus reaches a new nominal record, above last Friday’s intraday $295.
Meanwhile, the wholesale dollar earns 21 cents, at 129.12 pesos. The official exchange rate climbs 25.7% so far this year, once morest 44.7% that the free dollar has been rising. Meanwhile, the exchange rate gap between the two prices stands at 133.1 percent.
As for stock market parities, the “counted with settlement” through the Global 30 (GD30C) posted a new record of $308 at 1:30 p.m.. The MEP dollar with the Bonar 30 (AL30D) reaches 295 pesos.
“Upon reaching 300 pesos, cash with settlement is at a level in line with monetary aggregates, but the risk of overshooting remains latent as long as the Central Bank continues to issue pesos and there is no guarantee of control of the fiscal deficit”, he indicated. Adcap Financial Group.
Guido Lorenzoan economist at LCG Consulting warned that “a higher dollar at some point we will have to suffer, but it is better that (the devaluation) be done in an orderly manner to have better control over the nominality of the economy. The option of making an orderly adjustment is also recessive, but if it is not going to be done in a disorderly way via the market or by imposition from the IMF”.
“The rise in cash with liquidity is the consequence of investors dismantling portfolios (of bonds in pesos) following the departure of (Martín) Guzmán, there is little left for the liquidations to end. They are not companies turning dollars abroad to import. Soon the demand will give way, and any drop will be a buying opportunity”, estimated the analyst and business advisor Salvador Di Stefano.
“Operators follow the waiting for a rate hikefollowing the defined corridor, in search of continuing to recover a greater appetite for titles in pesos and thus slow the appetite for dollarization, crucial before a stage where the supply of foreign currency slows down. In the midst of a climate of caution due to possible new restrictions, the financial dollars remain sustained since it does not loosen the cover searchfueled not only by the scenario of ‘more pesos, less dollars’ but also by the acceleration in inflation that generates greater pressure on the nominal value of the economy”, he analyzed Gustavo Berowner of the Ber Studio.
So far in July, the monetary authority maintains a negative net balance due to its intervention in the foreign exchange market of the order of 771 million dollars. So far in 2022, accumulated net purchases in the wholesale market for regarding USD 1,071 millionan amount that represents 14.5% of the net balance in favor obtained in the same period last year, which accumulated some USD 7,366 million as of July 18, 2021.
Las reservations gross international prices fell by USD 130 million on Monday and ended in 40,013 million of dollars.
Last week the BCRA announced that it will set interest rates through a corridor defined by three variables: the interest rate on short-term Treasury bills, the 28-day Liquidity Letters (Leliq) rate and the repo rate. to one day Therefore, the market expects a rate hike at this week’s meeting of the Central Board of Directors.
After last week’s good bidding, investors will keep their eyes on the $500bn month-end maturity when the Ledes S29L2 and Lecer X29L2 expire.
Greater exchange controls, the jump in parallel exchange rates and adjustments in regulated prices affected inflation estimates. According to private studies, inflation in the first fortnight of July registered a rise of 7.9% compared to the same period in June 2022. In this way, the increase in prices in general would have a floor of 7% month-on-month in the seventh month of the year.
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