Despite the scale of the energy crisis that is hitting it, Germany is resisting. And the economic experts recognize that many forecasts on the evolution of the first European economy have been too pessimistic. This is what emerges from the analyzes of the Ifo institute and the Federal Ministry of Economics, published on Wednesday, December 14, which expect a slight recession or even stagnation in Germany in 2023, even if the outlook remains uncertain.
For the current year, the Ifo institute has even raised its estimates, with growth expected at 1.8%, against 1.6% so far. A very honorable result given the shock suffered by the country in 2022. “The third quarter, in particular, was much better than expected”explained Timo Wollmershäuser, Wednesday morning, in Berlin, during a press conference.
The German economy recorded a solid growth of 0.4% in the autumn, the statistics office reported on 25 November. However, this performance should not prevent a recession this winter, believes the director of forecasts: “We will have a contraction of the gross domestic product [PIB] during the two terms of winter 2022-2023. Then activity will pick up again. In 2023, [elle] is expected to fall by just 0.1%. »
Good performance of the labor market
The most surprising was the behavior of consumers. Despite historic inflation – currently at 10% – which is cutting into their purchasing power, households have made up for the expenses not incurred during the pandemic, either by drawing on their savings or by taking advantage of the aid granted by the State to alleviate the energy crisis.
Everything indicates that the Germans have celebrated the return of the freedom to travel and go out: the trade, transport, hotel and service sectors have made strong progress. The good performance of the labor market has undoubtedly also fueled this confidence: 46.2 million people were working across the Rhine in the fall. This is a new historic record, to which the Ukrainian refugees who arrived in Germany contributed, 20% of whom work, underlined the Ifo.
On the business side, the situation is more mixed. Very energy-intensive groups such as chemicals, steel, paper or glass manufacturing have had to significantly lower their production, which has made it possible to reduce gas consumption. But the rest of the industry continues to benefit from full order books, as companies seem to have adapted to the reduction and then halt in Russian gas deliveries this summer.
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