The Impact of Western Support on Ukraine's Ability to Hold Out Against Russia: Expert Analysis

2023-12-29 14:07:37

Russia’s massive attack on major Ukrainian cities last night came as Western support appears to be running out of steam. If Western countries were to cut off the aid tap, how long could Ukraine hold out? “It would only be a matter of weeks,” replies professor of international politics Sven Biscop, interviewed by HLN.

“I think it is premature to say that support for Ukraine is over. Europe is still very committed,” Sven Biscop immediately responds. “The EU works this way, with ups and downs and above all many discussions. But I sincerely think that European support for the Ukrainians is assured. On the other hand, I believe that support from the United States will gradually decline and that the Republicans’ coming to power could be very brutal. This would mean that Europe would not only have to persevere, but also move up a gear, which we are not yet ready for,” emphasizes the professor from Ghent University.

Europe not ready

Recently, the Financial Times outlined the scenario in which the United States would completely shut off the aid spigot to Ukraine. To compensate, Europe would have to add 40.8 billion euros per year, or 70 euros per inhabitant of each European NATO member state. “It is not insurmountable,” believes the British newspaper.

“If we want it, we can afford it,” admits Sven Biscop. “During the Cold War, our country spent almost three times as much on defense and we were no richer than we are today. I’m not saying we should go back to those times, but if we want to, we can deal with it. It is at the level of military equipment that the problem lies. Its production is currently too slow. We have seriously caught up with the Americans, but if their share decreases significantly, we are not ready to take over today,” warns the specialist.

Sven Biscop. © Jan Aelberts

“A matter of weeks”

On the battlefield, Ukraine depends almost exclusively on Western weapons and munitions. Without this support, the Ukrainian forces would not resist long, warns Sven Biscop. “It would be a matter of weeks, if not months. In addition to purely military support, there is also financial support. Currently, Ukraine spends almost its entire budget on the army. The functioning of society requires a lot of money from the West. If this money disappears, the State can no longer function, salaries and pensions can no longer be paid,” he points out.

Europe has every interest in defending Ukraine, continues the expert. “Ukraine has become a kind of border state for the West. We have an interest in it being independent and as strong as possible, because if it wins, Russia will probably attack Moldova and Georgia.”

Tired of war?

Finally, Sven Biscop does not think that Westerners are “weary of war”, as some assert. “Ukraine is at war, we are not. We are not being shot at (…) The war is not a matter of weeks or months, but of years. When you develop a strategy, it takes time for it to produce its effects. This is not a war film where the “We know in advance how long it will last and where, in the end, it is the ‘good guys’ who win. In real life, you have to be patient and persevering,” he concludes.