The Russians have already seen these images broadcast by public television in Moscow. Since Friday evening, busloads of frightened refugees have been crossing the border to find accommodation and comfort in the “mother country”. They come from Donbass, the Russian-speaking region in eastern Ukraine at the heart of eight years of conflict between the Ukrainian army and pro-Russian separatists backed by Moscow.
→ ANALYSIS. In eastern Ukraine, renewed violence and information warfare
Since Thursday, it has been won over by a sudden resurgence of violence. While the ceasefire, reaffirmed on December 22, seemed to be holding firm on the ground despite the political tensions all around, observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) noted a significant increase in shots Wednesday and Thursday: 213 in the Donetsk region and even 531 in the Lugansk region.
Beginning of panic
In these two “people’s republics” held since 2014 by the separatists, the explosions multiplied on Friday. First a car bomb near an official building in Donetsk. Then a double detonation on a section of gas pipeline in Lugansk. No casualties were reported. But, amid the sounds of gunfire, residents began to panic, withdrawing money from banks, rushing to shops and gas stations.
Faced with this rise in tension, the local authorities, who accuse Kiev of preparing an operation to invade their two republics, promptly announced the evacuation of the populations. Images of children gathered in schoolyards and families forming long queues of cars on the roads to Russia quickly circulated on the social networks of the separatists. Then on Russian public television, the main relay for messages from the Kremlin.
Prepare the opinion
These images are looping in Russia. The outbreak of violence, presented as provocations from Kiev, could allow the Russian authorities to prepare public opinion and justify a military intervention in Donbass. Duma deputies, who on Wednesday called on the Kremlin to recognize the independence of the two pro-Russian territories of Donbass, would stand ready for an emergency assembly. “Civilians are suffering and dying. We cannot close our eyes. We are concerned about the protection of our Russian citizens and compatriots living there.”insisted on Friday the speaker of the Duma Vyacheslav Volodin. “If a threat appears to the lives of Russian citizens and their compatriots living in these two republics, our country will stand up for their defense. » The message is clear.
The scenario recalls in particular that of the summer of 2008, at the start of the war between Russia and Georgia. The cycle of “provocations” against a backdrop of troop movements had provoked the conflict with a heavy toll for Tbilisi. Since then, Moscow has controlled 20% of Georgian territory. Coincidence or not, last November, the Russian foreign intelligence service (SVR), although usually not very talkative, had published a press release to observe that in the east of Ukraine reigned “a situation similar to that of Georgia before the events of 2008”. A message that could take on its full meaning today.
Missile firing exercises
In the meantime, while Vladimir Putin is preparing this Saturday, February 19 to attend missile firing exercises that look like a show of force in the midst of a standoff with the West, the head of the Kremlin is ensuring the good reception of refugees from the Donbass. He dispatched to Rostov, the large neighboring Russian city, teams from the Ministry of Emergency Situations, which already speaks of more than half a million refugees – a figure which is undoubtedly greatly exaggerated.
→ READ. Joe Biden “convinced” that Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine
The president released a special budget equivalent to 60 million euros. And, to each of the refugees, he promised a payment of 10,000 rubles. Well-orchestrated and well-shown aid on television throughout Russia.