Already at the end of January, the European governments, including the Spanish, knew that the Biden administration was certain that Putin wanted to invade Ukraine, that it was not about taking over Donbas or destabilizing the area with a hybrid war, but rather the intention was to reach Kyiv with the troops. The Americans had publicly warned about the scope of the Russian plans, but insisted in more detail through diplomatic channels. It is not that in Moncloa these warnings were thrown on deaf ears, but the possibility –or the hope– was left open that the calculations were wrong. Pedro Sánchez and his foreign minister informed United We Can of the information that was coming from North American sources and of the EU’s preparations, although the feeling was not of urgency, in such a way that there has not been a broad debate in the Government on the extent of Spain’s involvement in the war. It all came crashing down a week ago.
Europe woke up on Thursday, February 24, with the news of the Russian attack. The community reaction was unusually fast and forceful. And Spain sat comfortably under that umbrella. Arms would be sent to the Ukrainians, but through the European Peace Support Fund. Events move quickly and most of the countries around us decide to supply Ukraine with weapons. Their public opinions seem more sensitive to a threat that they undoubtedly perceive to be closer. The Spanish Government announces the shipment of defensive supplies such as bulletproof vests, helmets, vehicles and medical supplies. The memory of the great demonstrations against the war weighs heavily, which, to a large extent, also erupted against the warlike zeal of José María Aznar. Almost all the parties that support the government are cautious in the early stages of the crisis. Deep down, they don’t know whether, even if the majority is on the side of the Ukrainians, the population will support a determined involvement in a war.
On Monday night, Sánchez called Díaz and Albares to Belarra: Spain will send weapons
So Sánchez goes to the TVE interview on Monday, February 28, four days after the start of hostilities, with the message of unity. He wields the firm unanimity shown by the EU to demand political support in Spain, thinking not only of military participation, but also of the economic consequences. The first question is direct: will Spain deliver weapons to the Ukrainians? Sánchez refers to the European fund and, despite the insistence, remains there. The PP is busy with its own fights, but has managed to sneak in the story that Sánchez falls short in aid to Kyiv because he is trapped by United We Can. On Tuesday night, Sánchez calls Vice President Yolanda Díaz Armas to Ukraine and Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares does the same with the minister. Ione Belarrain her capacity as general secretary of Podemos, who already expresses her disagreement.
In the Council of Ministers on Tuesday, March 1, the issue had not been discussed. But the spokeswoman, Isabel Rodríguez, is already more ambiguous, advancing to the announcement that Sánchez would make on Wednesday in Congress: weapons will be sent. The problem now is for United We Can. Belarra airs the internal discrepancy in a video in which he assures that Podemos is not a “hippy” position. Pablo Iglesias is more forceful. The divergence threatens to destabilize the Government. For how long is it sustainable for the Executive to show differences on such a delicate matter? Díaz, without hesitation, goes out to support Sánchez and remember that the government pact granted the president foreign policy. In fact, Iglesias recognized in his day that, as a minor party in the coalition, they would assume social portfolios and not “state ministries.”
© Emilio Naranjo / EFE
GRAF8553. MADRID, 03/02/2022.- The President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez (l) talks with the Second Vice President of the Government and Minister of Labor, Yolanda Díaz (r) during the plenary session in Congress this Wednesday. EFE / Emilio Naranjo
The Government believes that there is going to be a civil massacre in Ukraine and it would be a mistake to avoid the commitment
Just as the PSOE digested the yes to NATO toad long ago, the discomfort in UP is evident. Many of its leaders come from the “no war” movement. Among them quite a few of the common ones, although these have been placed next to Díaz. The contradiction is not minor. History provides ironies: a political force with an antimilitarist tradition, against NATO and with a rhetoric that denounces “US imperialism.” he is part of a government that sends weapons to a country at war with Russia. Díaz’s position shows that one part of that political space has a different government culture than the other.
Sánchez knows that he cannot be left behind in his European commitment at these critical times. Madrid will host the NATO summit in June. And the president hopes to complete the mandate with the Spanish presidency of the Union. But the government is also convinced that Putin is going to commit a civilian massacre in the Ukraine and cannot afford the mistake of having been stingy with aid. If so, we will see terrible images. According to polls by the ruling parties, more than 65% of Spaniards support sending weapons to Ukraine. But the course of the war and its effects are indecipherable.