2023-11-13 10:21:24
After the 13th day (and therefore before Antwerp’s defeat against Standard this Saturday), Anderlecht is the 2nd Pro League attack this season, tied with Bruges and behind Union Saint-Gilloise. And since the start of the season, the Mauves have had a big gap between expected goals and goals scored. How to explain this?
Anderlecht is having a good season with a second place. But also goals in spades. With 26 goals in 13 matches, the offensive sector is running at full speed. A bit too much ? Because the core of Brian Riemers has the largest gap of all Pro League clubs between goals scored and expected goals (xG) obtained.
An xG designates the probability that a shot will be converted into a goal. By adding up all the shots, we obtain an xG score. They often reflect the appearance of a match and generally make it possible to identify the team which had the biggest chances.
In terms of scorers, Kasper Dolberg leads the purple attack with eight goals in 13 matches. He is ahead Anders Dreyers (seven goals in 11 matches) and Francis Have fun along with Mario Stroykens (three goals in 11 matches each).
“If we want to explain this outperformance, we must look at three players from the purple squad“, explain Stephane Medeiros, video analyst and data analyst. “Francis Have fun is 3 goals for 0.95 xG, Mario Stroykens has 3 goals and 1.01 xG and Ander Dreyer is at 2.01 xG and 7 goals. Somehow, that explains Anderlecht’s outperformance in the Pro League. We can conclude that they have good efficiency, especially at a distance. We also remember Dreyer’s hattrick outside the box at OHL. The xG on these goals were quite low.”
Could we therefore see Anderlecht come back into line? “It’s unlikely. The only way for them would be to get a lot of possibilities per match without setting a goal. And then, we can see that this happens often. Last season, Genk finished with 10 more goals than their xG. As for Union Saint-Gilloise, it was even better: 13 goals more than the total xG.“
If the xG doesn’t explain everything either, for the moment, it’s working rather well in Anderlercht which travels to La Gantoise this Sunday at 6:30 p.m. The Mauves will want to protect their second place. It will involve goals and expected goals.
1699875245
#goals #scored #19xG #Anderlecht #overplaying #season