The Russian invasion of Ukraine, the text highlights, is also “a potential catalytic vector of terrorism,” since “it has led to an increase in the circulation of weapons and explosives.” [en Europa], as well as the participation in the war of volunteer combatants of other nationalities.” These circumstances, the document explains, could be taken advantage of by groups or individuals “to undermine public security” and also “state actors could carry out terrorist actions,” it adds, in what seems an implicit allusion to Russia, which recently murdered a deserter from his Army in Villajoyosa (Alicante).
However, the report concludes that “the main terrorist threat to our country continues to come from jihadist organizations, fundamentally Daesh. [Estado Islámico] and Al Qaeda.” On the contrary, he assures, “indigenous terrorism”, as he refers to ETA, “after its defeat by the Democratic State of Law, does not represent a relevant threat today.” During the validity of the previous strategy (2019-2023) “more than 110 operations related to terrorist activities have been carried out”; More than 90% of these are linked to jihadist terrorism and just over 5% to indigenous terrorism, he details.
According to the National Security Council, jihadist terrorism, “asymmetric and transnational,” has evolved “towards a more decentralized and diffuse structure, making it difficult to identify and dismantle.” It relies on “lone actors without ties to organizations” and directs its attacks against “soft targets,” which have little protection. The rudimentary nature of some attacks, with the use of knives or transport vehicles as weapons, contrasts with the use of “advanced technology, including drones or cryptography”, in other scenarios. “Terrorist propaganda is constantly evolving, adapting to new technologies to access a broader, younger and more vulnerable audience. […] The inappropriate use of technological advances such as artificial intelligence, quantum cryptography and virtual reality, among others, constitute current and future challenges that must be responded to,” the document warns.
The National Security Council pays special attention to the link between mental health and the so-called lone wolves, like the young Moroccan man with psychiatric problems who murdered a sacristan and left four injured in Algeciras (Cádiz) in January 2023. Although “mental disorder cannot be directly linked to violent radicalization,” he admits, “the presence of certain diseases Mental health is a vulnerability factor”, which can be aggravated by social isolation.
It also emphasizes that the return of Foreign Terrorist Fighters (FTC), who joined the ranks of the Islamic State (ISIS) and have military training and experience, represents “a threat to national security” and “a major concern for the Spanish authorities. Although the report does not offer data, the most recent statistics from the CITCO (Intelligence Center against Terrorism and Organized Crime) show that 272 jihadists left Spain since 2015 (a relatively low figure compared to countries like France, with almost 2,000; Germany , more than a thousand, or Belgium, above 500). Of them, at least 65 have returned to Europe, more than a hundred have died and the rest remain in conflict zones, such as Syria or Iraq.
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The text justifies the resistance of European countries to repatriate the wives and children of their nationals recruited by the Islamic State, alleging that it is “a complex and delicate issue”, but presumes that Spain has “carried out some processes “repatriation of women and children who were in refugee camps”; in reference to the two women and 13 minors repatriated from Syria in January 2023.
It also alludes, as a “growing concern”, to the risk of “radicalization in prisons” – that is, the recruitment of common prisoners by jihadism – which has led to “activating control and monitoring protocols for those who , having entered prison for another type of crime, have shown indicators of being immersed in this type of process.” According to data from Penitentiary Institutions, at the end of February there were 81 inmates in Spanish prisons for jihadism, to which are added 38 who entered prison for other crimes but have become radicalized inside and 59 more inmates who show signs of following in their footsteps.
The document recognizes that the situation in the Maghreb “continues to be one of the factors that most affects the level of terrorist threat in Spain”, underlining the “close links between Maghreb jihadists with residents in our country, as well as the high percentage of CTE [Combatientes Terroristas Extranjeros] and terrorists detained in Spain with this origin.” It also highlights the “critical connections between jihadists and human trafficking networks, especially in the central Mediterranean”, which increases “the risk of entry into European territory of returnees and other terrorists, as well as highly radicalized individuals.” While Europe considers the Western Balkans, North Africa, the Middle East, the Sahel region and the Horn of Africa to be “priority areas” in the fight against terrorism, Spain adds the Gulf of Guinea to this list.
In addition to jihadism, the report highlights the “increase in extremism and radicalism” as a “worrying phenomenon at a global level.” Although he does not identify them politically, he points to the extreme right when he refers to their “racist or xenophobic” manifestations and their “denialist and anti-system” character, which “rejects scientific, historical or political evidence and generates distrust towards institutions.” The risk is in “violent extremist movements [que] “They seek to impose their vision of the world through illegitimate and undemocratic means, representing a threat to the security and well-being of society.”
The report, which has been coordinated by the Ministry of the Interior and in which Foreign Affairs, Defense and the Presidency have collaborated, as well as the Secretary of State for Communication and the Department of National Security, proposes the adoption of a series of measures to combat terrorism and prevent radicalization. Among others, the neutralization of this content on networks and the Internet, complementing the current notification system for service providers “with a clear legislative framework that reduces accessibility to them.” Without forgetting the fight against the financing of terrorism “with cryptoassets or cryptocurrencies or any other financial innovation”, the strengthening of international cooperation, the protection of victims of terrorism or citizen collaboration. To raise awareness in society, the new National Strategy against Terrorism, as happened for the first time with that of 2019, will be public.
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