2023-09-04 16:30:25
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A little over a month after the coup that overthrew the president of Niger, Ali Bongo Odimba (ABO) was, on the morning of August 30, overthrown by a group of soldiers even before he had the time to celebrate his third election as head of the Gabonese state.
1-Another coup
The first announcements of the coup d’état in Gabon recall the failed attempt in January 2019, when the deputy of the head of the Republican Guard, Ondo Obiang Kelly, headed a commando to try to put an end to the regime of State. ‘Ali Bango Odimba, then recovering in Morocco, after being treated for stroke in Saudi Arabia. Lieutenant Ondo Obiang and his accomplices were arrested the same day and two of them were killed. Could this be the fate of the current putschists? The yield of the facts seems to indicate not.
After Guinea, Mali (twice), Burkina Faso (twice) and Niger, it’s Gabon’s turn. At the same time, the putsches that affect the states French-speaking Africans who seem to affect only West Africa (ECOWAS), are moving towards Central Africa (ECCAS).
2-The facts of August 30, 2023
Around 1 a.m., the Gabonese Election Center (CGE), a structure dedicated to the organization of the 2023 elections and the Gabon 24 channel, prepare to record the final results to be read by Michel Stéphane Bonda, president of the CGE.
A few hours later, Gabon 24, the channel whose studios are located in the presidential palace, begins communicating the results which give Ali Bango the winner with more than 64% of the votes, but the broadcast is interrupted to make way for soldiers, one of whom declared: “We are putting an end to the regime in place”, before reading a press release announcing the cancellation of the election results and the dissolution of political institutions. The press release focuses on the main points:
– It does not recognize the election results: “…the general elections of August 26, 2023 as well as the truncated results are cancelled”;
– He stigmatizes the governance of Ali Bango: “an irresponsible, unpredictable governance which translates into a continuous deterioration of social cohesion risking leading the country to chaos…”;
– It affirms the respect of Gabon’s commitments to the international community;
– He announces the closure of the borders until further notice and;
– He calls the population to calm and serenity.
If the coup is reminiscent of the 2019 attempt, the composition of the group of putschists does not augur the same end experienced by Lieutenant Ondo Obiang Kelly, author of the January 2019 attempt, who was almost isolated. The group leading the 2023 coup took care to involve almost all the corps of the Gabonese army, or at least the most important ones: red berets from the regular army, green berets from the Republican Guard, black berets of armored units, gendarmes and even a person in civilian clothes who must probably represent intelligence services.
The group calling itself the “Committee for the Transition and Restoration of Institutions” restores the internet which had been cut off since August 26 and subsequently announces that it has placed the outgoing/entering president under house arrest and put his son in a state of arrest.
3-A coup that is part of the new wave
When in August 2020, in Mali, Assimi Goïta overthrew IBK, it was clear that the putsch followed a discontent of the population, in particular through the June 5 Movement (M5-RFP). The announcement of the coup d’etat was greeted by great popular enthusiasm, the Malians perceived the putschist soldiers as simple citizens who had decided to take their responsibilities. It was a first in the region and in Africa where coups d’etat inspired more distrust and fear than serenity and satisfaction among the populations.
This same phenomenon, currently observed in Guinea and subsequently in Burkina Faso and most recently in Niger, leads us to believe in the emergence in the Sahel, and even in Africa, of a new paradigm in terms of political governance. This phenomenon seems to install a new form of “social contract” between the populations and the armies to the detriment of the political elites who prove incapable of gaining the confidence of the populations. These give their support to the military so that they remove from power a political elite which is blamed either for its dependence on foreign powers, or its corruption or even its carelessness and incompetence.
It is in this new wave of coups that occur under the banner of this new “social contract” that seems to fit the putsch against Ali Bango Odimba.
Like Malians, Guineans, Burkinabais, and Nigeriens, Gabonese took to the streets to greet the coup; sign that they no longer appreciated their political elite, led by a president, who after having succeeded his father, was about to start a third term, despite his precarious state of health.
4-A coup that would confirm the tendency to malaise in the former French colonies
Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and now Gabon, not to mention Chad, share not only the fact of having experienced coups d’état during the last three years, but also that of being French-speaking and to have been French colonies. Could this fact be a mere coincidence? Why the phenomenon of putschs seems to have been abandoned in the English, Spanish or Portuguese colonies and at the same time to persist, even to intensify in the countries which were former French colonies. Do deposed presidents suffer the curse of being at the head of former French colonies?
The putsch in Gabon, which is placed in the wake of those of four other African countries, raises fears of a domino effect whose storm is likely to carry other regimes? One cannot then do without questioning the future country which will see its president deposed by the military. Can it be a country whose president has served a third term? A country that imprisons its opponents? A country where the longevity of the president has exceeded the standards? Where a country whose president cannot fulfill his duties?
One thing is almost certain: the future coup will take place in a French-speaking country. In a former French colony. Let us bet, however, on the capacity of the French-speaking world and of France to overcome the crises to correct this trend. They can do it, they can afford it.
Written by Abdelhak Bassou
Senior Fellow at the Policy Center for the New South (PCNS)
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