On the sanctions, Camp confirmed that Russian economy It weathered the crisis in 2022 much better than expected, but that is in part due to higher prices oil.
However, he pointed to the damage to the Russian economy, "Even with the rise in oil prices, the Russian government announced last week that it had a deficit of $147 billion, and this was when oil prices were high."He said, adding that oil prices will drop during the current year, and technical sanctions will begin to be imposed in particular, which will prevent Russia obtaining the necessary technological parts for its weapons.
Affected.. Russia or Europe?
The Executive Director of the Atlantic Council believes that Russia has been affected much more than Europe, explaining his surprise at the effective manner in which European countries dealt with the current winter.
Camp explained that the growth of the Chinese economy was very slow due to the restrictions imposed to limit the spread of the Corona virus, which allowed the transfer of liquefied natural gas from China to Europe, in a move that compensated for the great Russian gas shortage in the old continent.
"Also, Europe quickly prepared to reduce its gas consumption much faster than expected. If we look at store levels Gas in EuropeWe note that its capacity is still 85 percent, and this year’s winter looks good for Europe"says Camp.
And Camp believes that the biggest challenge for the old continent will be in the coming winter, because it will explain the extent of European adaptation to winter in the absence of Russian gasAnd how did Russia adapt to the situation?
Among the factors that will constitute an additional challenge is Europe imposing a price ceiling on Russian products, including diesel, gasoline and petroleum products, which will be added to the ceiling imposed on the price of a barrel of Russian oil transported by sea last year.
Price ceiling.. successful or failed?
The Executive Director of the Atlantic Council believes that the move to impose a ceiling on Russian oil prices was successful in part, and failed in another part, as he succeeded in imposing a ceiling on prices as a symbol of Western solidarity, saying that he "It is remarkable to see how countries were able to unite to impose such measures".
On the other hand, these sanctions did not work because Putin managed to find alternative markets and sold oil to other countries at prices lower than the imposed ceiling.
American gas and Europe… where is the problem?
Camp sees a problem on the European side with regard to imports liquefied natural gasHe pointed out that there are many large countries producing liquefied natural gas, such as Qatar, Algeria, the United States and others, and there is a market for this gas and everyone can buy from it.
However, the problem lies in the absence of long-term contracts. "So far, European buyers are not ready to sign contracts for the period after 2030"According to Camp, in addition to having a problem with the regulators in the United States, the administration of US President Joe Biden is very strict in terms of regulations related to operations that may have direct and indirect effects on the climate.
He explained: "It is better to move to markets where there are many sellers of LNG than to have countries hostage to the Russian energy sector".
China.. to where?
committed China Recently, Camp says, he made four mistakes, the first of which was politics "Zero covid"which was implemented by the central Chinese government, which is held by President Xi Jinping, as a result of China’s failure to distribute vaccines that could have been obtained early, which disrupted the process of exiting the second largest economy in the world from the crisis of the spread of the Corona virus.
"The second mistake is to cancel a policy "Zero covid" Quickly, and one can understand that because of the dangers of the current variants that the Chinese think are not dangerous, however, many people have lost their lives and this should not have happened if they had been vaccinated in a good way."According to Camp.
The third mistake, according to the Executive Director of the Atlantic Council, was the economic slowdown. In addition to the anti-Corona policy, Camp believes that the Chinese government was "Technology companies are suppressed" With the aim of allowing the ruling party to control the economy.
China also made another mistake, which was to pursue diplomacy "Warrior wolf"where Chinese diplomacy has been very strict, especially in Europe.
Camp believes that it harmed China, especially in Europe, as the latter was addressing China in a positive way, when the United States had real doubts and its relationship with China entered into great tension, as he put it, but Europe and the United States have become close together in their suspicion of China and its role in the world. .
On the other hand, Camp believes that the Chinese-Gulf rapprochement comes at a time when it is buying United State Oil is in very small quantities from Saudi Arabia, while China imports a lot of it.
And he said: "We saw the Chinese president visiting the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia And he meets all the leaders of the Gulf, as the Chinese want to buy oil with their yuan currency, perhaps not tomorrow, and perhaps not next year, but if the United States does not buy most of its oil from the Gulf, and China buys most of its oil from the Gulf, then sooner or later, we can see the end of the relationship petroleum bdollar".
He explained that this would be a very big blow to the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, in a step that may "History changed".
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Contrary to what Russian officials declare, that the sanctions have harmed the West more than they have harmed Russia, the Executive Director of the Atlantic Council, Frederic Camp, believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin faces a number of major problems revealed by the war, most notably the poor performance of the Russian army, and the broken morale of the soldiers.
Camp said in an interview with “Sky News Arabia Economy”, that some believed that Putin would be able to dismantle an alliance North Atlantic or NATO Through this war, but instead, both Norway AndSweden To the Alliance, and thus, NATO strengthened its capabilities.
On the sanctions, Camp confirmed that Russian economy It weathered the crisis in 2022 much better than expected, but that is in part due to higher prices oil.
However, he pointed to the damage to the Russian economy, “Even with the rise in oil prices, the Russian government announced during the past week that it has a deficit amounting to 147 billion dollars, and this is when oil prices were high,” he said, adding that oil prices will decrease during the current year, and imposition will begin. Technical penalties in particular, which will be prevented Russia obtaining the necessary technological parts for its weapons.
Affected.. Russia or Europe?
The Executive Director of the Atlantic Council believes that Russia has been affected much more than Europe, explaining his surprise at the effective manner in which European countries dealt with the current winter.
Camp explained that the growth of the Chinese economy was very slow due to the restrictions imposed to limit the spread of the Corona virus, which allowed the transfer of liquefied natural gas from China to Europe, in a move that compensated for the great Russian gas shortage in the old continent.
Also, Europe quickly prepared to reduce its gas consumption much faster than expected. And if we look at storage levels Gas in EuropeWe note that its capacity is still 85 percent, and this year’s winter looks good for Europe,” Kamp said.
And Camp believes that the biggest challenge for the old continent will be in the coming winter, because it will explain the extent of European adaptation to winter in the absence of Russian gasAnd how did Russia adapt to the situation?
Among the factors that will constitute an additional challenge is Europe imposing a price ceiling on Russian products, including diesel, gasoline and petroleum products, which will be added to the ceiling imposed on the price of a barrel of Russian oil transported by sea last year.
Price ceiling.. successful or failed?
The Executive Director of the Atlantic Council believes that the move to impose a ceiling on Russian oil prices was successful in part, and failed in another part, as he succeeded in imposing a price ceiling as a symbol of Western solidarity, saying that “it is remarkable to see how countries were able to unite to impose such measures.”
On the other hand, these sanctions did not work because Putin managed to find alternative markets and sold oil to other countries at prices lower than the imposed ceiling.
American gas and Europe… where is the problem?
Camp sees a problem on the European side with regard to imports liquefied natural gasHe pointed out that there are many large countries producing liquefied natural gas, such as Qatar, Algeria, the United States and others, and there is a market for this gas and everyone can buy from it.
However, the problem lies in the absence of long-term contracts, and “so far, European buyers are not ready to sign contracts for the period after 2030,” according to Camp, in addition to a problem with regulatory agencies in the United States, as the administration of US President Joe Biden is very strict. In terms of regulations regarding processes that may have direct and indirect impacts on the climate.
He explained, “It is better to move to markets where there are many sellers of liquefied natural gas than for countries to be hostage to the Russian energy sector.”
China.. to where?
committed China Recently, according to Camp, 4 mistakes were made, the first of which was the “zero Covid” policy, which was implemented by the central Chinese government, whose leadership is held by President Xi Jinping, as a result of China’s failure to distribute vaccines that could have been obtained early, what He disrupted the process of exiting the second largest economy in the world from the crisis of the spread of the Corona virus.
“The second mistake is to cancel the ‘zero covid’ policy quickly, and one can understand that because of the dangers of the current variants that the Chinese believe are not dangerous, but, many people lost their lives and this should not have happened if they had received vaccines in a good way,” according to Camp. .
The third mistake, according to the executive director of the Atlantic Council, was the economic slowdown. In addition to the anti-Corona policy, Camp believes that the Chinese government was “suppressing technology companies” with the aim of allowing the ruling party to control the economy.
China also made another mistake, which is its “wolf warrior” diplomacy, as Chinese diplomacy was very strict, especially in Europe.
Camp believes that it harmed China, especially in Europe, as the latter was addressing China in a positive way, when the United States had real doubts and its relationship with China entered into great tension, as he put it, but Europe and the United States have become close together in their suspicion of China and its role in the world. .
On the other hand, Camp believes that the Chinese-Gulf rapprochement comes at a time when it is buying United State Oil is in very small quantities from Saudi Arabia, while China imports a lot of it.
He said, “We saw the Chinese president visit Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia And he meets all the leaders of the Gulf, as the Chinese want to buy oil with their yuan currency, perhaps not tomorrow, and perhaps not next year, but if the United States does not buy most of its oil from the Gulf, and China buys most of its oil from the Gulf, then sooner or later, we can see the end of the relationship petroleum bdollar“.
He explained that this would be a very big blow to the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, in a move that might “change history.”