A CRITICAL naval flashpoint could decide Ukraine‘s fate – with Vladimir Putin and Kyiv’s rapidly evolving tactics constantly turning the tides of the war.
In the latest episode of The Sun’s Battle Plans Exposed, former intelligence officer Philip Ingram takes a deep dive into Russia‘s failing sea power – and analyses Ukraine‘s tech-savvy strategies.
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Ex-Nato planner Ingram highlights why the back-and-forth battle over the hotly contested Black Sea is such a crucial aspect of the war.
Although Russia occupies around two-thirds of Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea, Kyiv has shown time and time again its resilience in maintaining naval presence.
Watch the latest episode on The Sun’s YouTube channel here…
For Kyiv the Black Sea is “a vital artery” for its export economy, while Moscow sees the naval territory as a launchpad to project power in the Mediterranean, Ingram explains.
“Control of the Black Sea means control of critical trade and energy corridors,” he says.
The “cat and mouse” fight has seen battles over Zmiinyi Island, also known as Snake Island, a tiny outpost off of Ukraine’s southwest coast, and drone strikes on key warships.
“It is a high stakes chess match and every move is critical,” Ingram adds.
The military analyst also explains how Russia’s Black Sea fleet has had to effectively retreat from its main port in Sevastopol, occupied Crimea, due to relentless Ukrainian drone attacks.
Putin has been forced to relocate his prized fleet to the Russian port of Novorossiysk, and some areas in Russia-occupied Georgia.
Ingram says: “Before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet had about 74 warships which included surface combatants and submarines.
“By March 2024, reports suggested that the fleet had become functionally inactive due to heavy losses of vessels.”
To add insult to injury, Putin’s pride of the Russian Navy, the Moskva, was also downed by Ukraine’s famed Neptune missiles – outlined by Ingram as a “turning point”.
But Russia has been able to learn from this and has since hit back – using a sea drone for the first time.
Moscow managed to sink the Simferopol reconnaissance ship last month, killing two on board in the Danube Delta, near Ukraine’s southwest coast.
Highlighting the strike as a stark reminder of the war’s rapidly changing nature, Ingram says: “This war is a constantly evolving game of cat and mouse, with both sides learning and adapting their battle plans at lightning speed.”
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Ingram also looks at how Ukraine’s homegrown arsenal is evolving at breakneck speed.
The Neptune missile has been reborn in an extended-range land-attack variant.
Capable of striking targets up to 1,000km inside Russia, it can rip into command posts and ammo depots deep behind enemy lines.
The Flamingo has also been unveiled – a cruise missile shrouded in secrecy until recently.
Boasting a staggering claimed range of 3,000km and a heavy warhead, it has already surfaced in combat footage.
If its reach is proven, Ingram says, the Flamingo could be Kyiv’s most significant homegrown weapon of the war – and unlike Western kit, it is fully under Ukraine’s control.
But the real revolution is happening on the water, Ingram highlights.
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The geopolitics expert explains how Kyiv has built a navy not from steel hulls but from silicon chips and explosive payloads.
The Sea Babya heavyweight drone boat, can haul an 850kg warhead strong enough to cripple bridges and smash warships in harbour.
Its smaller, faster sibling, the Magura V5, is the Black Sea’s silent assassin — a sea-skimming hunter designed to overwhelm Russian vessels in swarms.
Together, these drones have “sunk or damaged over a third of Putin’s fleet,” forcing his warships to hide in distant ports that once bristled with confidence.
The episode also takes a look at why the fight for the sea matters so much, while also giving insight into the battle for the skies.
Calling the battle for the sea a “shadow war and innovation and brutal retaliation”, Ingram emphasises that its outcome could decide the fate of Ukraine.
Losing control of the Black Sea would give Russia “total control over the unoccupied coastline areas”.
And he warned that Ukraine losing access to the Sea would significantly hinder their reconnaissance operations – hampering their effort to force Russia out.
If Putin wins the Ukraine war, experts have long warned it will have dire consequences for the rest of Europe and the West – with Vlad emboldened to continue his deranged dream of a new Russian empire.
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The latest episode comes after Poland called on Nato to trigger Article 4 – one below the threshold of war – in response to Russia’s “deliberate” overnight drone onslaught.
And after the Ukrainians once again struck a Russian spy ship in the Black Sea.
Donald Trump and European nations were urged to rise to Putin’s test and punish him, after Nato shot down Russian drones over Poland’s airspace.
Poland’s Prime Minster Donald Tusk said 19 Russian drones brazenly flew across the border amid an onslaught against western Ukraine.
He said that around four were shot down Nato fighter jets – understood to be from Poland, Italy, the Netherland the US – and officials later said seven had been found on the ground.
It was the first time since the outbreak of war that Nato has directly clashed with Russia – and the aggression is being taken as a test of the West’s resolve.
Nato jets have been scrambled multiple times in response to Russian drone attacks on Ukraine – but have never before engaged them.
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How is Russia’s increased reliance on electronic warfare impacting Ukraine’s military operations?
Table of Contents
- 1. How is Russia’s increased reliance on electronic warfare impacting Ukraine’s military operations?
- 2. The Shifting Battlefield: Ukraine and the West’s High-Stakes Struggle Against Russia’s Rapid Tactical Changes
- 3. Russia’s Adaptive Warfare: A New Phase in Ukraine
- 4. Key Tactical Shifts Observed Since 2024
- 5. The West’s Response: Challenges and Limitations
- 6. The Role of Technology: Drones, EW, and AI
- 7. Ukraine’s Innovation and Resilience
The Shifting Battlefield: Ukraine and the West’s High-Stakes Struggle Against Russia’s Rapid Tactical Changes
Russia’s Adaptive Warfare: A New Phase in Ukraine
The conflict in Ukraine has evolved dramatically as its initial phases. Early expectations of a swift Russian victory proved inaccurate, but Russia has demonstrably adapted its military strategy, shifting from a broad, multi-pronged offensive to a more focused, attritional approach. This adaptation,coupled with innovative tactical changes,presents a notable challenge to Ukraine and its Western allies. Understanding these shifts is crucial for formulating effective responses and sustaining support for Ukraine. key to this is recognizing Russia’s increasing reliance on electronic warfare (EW) and drone technology.
Key Tactical Shifts Observed Since 2024
Several key tactical changes have been observed in Russia’s approach to the war in Ukraine, especially since late 2024:
* Increased Drone Warfare: Russia has considerably increased its use of both reconnaissance and attack drones, including Iranian-supplied Shahed models and domestically produced Lancet loitering munitions.These drones are used for target identification, artillery spotting, and direct attacks on ukrainian positions and infrastructure. This has forced Ukraine to invest heavily in counter-drone technology and air defense systems.
* Fortified defensive Lines: Instead of attempting large-scale offensives across the entire front line, Russia has focused on building and reinforcing extensive defensive lines, particularly in eastern and southern Ukraine. These lines consist of multiple layers of trenches, minefields, and obstacles, making Ukrainian advances extremely costly.
* Electronic Warfare Dominance: Russia has deployed advanced electronic warfare systems to disrupt Ukrainian communications, GPS signals, and drone operations.This EW capability has significantly hampered Ukraine’s ability to coordinate attacks and utilize precision-guided munitions.Reports suggest Russia is actively jamming Starlink terminals, a critical communication tool for Ukrainian forces.
* Localized Offensive Thrusts: Rather than broad offensives, russia has concentrated on localized attacks aimed at capturing strategically vital towns and villages. This approach allows them to conserve resources and exploit weaknesses in Ukrainian defenses. The battle for Avdiivka exemplifies this strategy.
* Artillery-Centric Warfare: Despite losses, artillery remains a cornerstone of Russian tactics. They employ a “fire and maneuver” approach, using heavy artillery barrages to suppress Ukrainian defenses before launching limited infantry assaults.
The West’s Response: Challenges and Limitations
Western support for Ukraine has been substantial, providing billions of dollars in military aid, including advanced weapons systems, ammunition, and training. However, the West faces several challenges in responding to Russia’s tactical shifts:
* Supply Chain Bottlenecks: Maintaining a consistent flow of ammunition and equipment to ukraine has proven challenging due to production limitations and logistical challenges. The debate surrounding further aid packages in the US Congress highlights this issue.
* Slow Adoption of New Technologies: While the West possesses advanced military technologies, integrating them into ukrainian forces and scaling up production takes time.The delivery of F-16 fighter jets, for example, has been delayed, and their impact on the battlefield remains to be seen.
* Hesitancy to Escalate: Concerns about escalating the conflict have limited the types of weapons and support provided to ukraine. There is ongoing debate about providing long-range missiles that could strike targets inside Russia.
* Adapting to Electronic Warfare: Countering Russia’s electronic warfare capabilities requires significant investment in research and progress,as well as the deployment of specialized equipment. This is an area were the West is currently playing catch-up.
* Training and Doctrine: Integrating Western military doctrine and training with Ukrainian forces requires time and resources. Adapting to the realities of the battlefield, particularly the prevalence of drones and EW, is an ongoing process.
The Role of Technology: Drones, EW, and AI
The conflict in Ukraine is often described as the first major war of the 21st century, characterized by the widespread use of advanced technologies.
* Drone Proliferation: The proliferation of drones has fundamentally changed the nature of warfare. Both sides are using drones for reconnaissance, surveillance, and attack, creating a complex and dynamic battlefield.Drone countermeasures are now a critical area of development.
* Electronic Warfare as a Decisive Factor: Russia’s effective use of electronic warfare has demonstrated its potential to disrupt enemy operations and gain a tactical advantage. The West needs to invest heavily in developing countermeasures and enhancing its own EW capabilities.
* artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning: AI is being used in various applications, including drone control, target recognition, and data analysis. The development of AI-powered systems could significantly enhance military capabilities. AI-driven defense systems are becoming increasingly important.
* Cyber Warfare: While less visible, cyber warfare plays a crucial role in the conflict. Both sides are engaging in cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure and military systems.
Ukraine’s Innovation and Resilience
Despite facing significant challenges, Ukraine has demonstrated remarkable innovation and resilience.
* Improvised weaponry: Ukrainian forces have developed innovative solutions to counter Russian tactics, including modifying civilian drones for military use and creating improvised explosive devices.
* Effective Use of Western Aid: Ukraine has effectively integrated Western weapons systems into its forces and utilized them to inflict significant losses on Russian troops.
* Details Warfare: Ukraine has
