“The situation is complicated” – RUSI expert on the situation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donetsk region

Over the past months, Ukraine has been losing ground to Russia in the east of the Donetsk region. And although the United States has finally approved the allocation of $61 billion in military support for Kyiv, the Ukrainian Armed Forces claim that this will only be enough to hold the front line and, perhaps, regain some lost positions.

The situation worsened significantly due to serious shortages of ammunition and weapons among the Western Allies. In Kyiv they say that Ukrainian troops have to count every cartridge: they can use no more than 2,000 a day, while the Russian army spends 7,000.

“Lost positions make the situation more difficult. We have to recapture them. I think the calculations in Putin’s head have changed a little: they say, the tactics we are using, frankly, are brutal, but we are moving forward. Putin is probably in a better position than six months ago. So it works, and he can go on the offensive. The situation for the Ukrainians now is really very difficult. The real difficulty is that all the equipment and new ammunition will only allow them to keep the front in place,” said the senior researcher at the Royal. Joint Institute for Defense Studies RUSI Ed Arnold.

In a number of battles, Russia used the so-called “human wave” tactic: masses of poorly trained soldiers, often recruited from prison inmates, were sent to the battlefield so that the Ukrainians would expend large quantities of ammunition on them. And then more experienced, trained troops with modern weapons went into battle.

Alexander Matyash is a Ukrainian officer who has been fighting on the front lines since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. He fought in Bucha and Avdeevka

“We will win the war, but the losses will be critical for Ukraine. We do not have enough people: at the beginning of the war there were 38 million of us. Too many people are leaving. Some of them do not want to fight, some cannot fight. And if we lose too many people , we simply cannot protect our country. Therefore, we need help,” he emphasizes.

Earlier this week, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg admitted during a visit to Kyiv: “Ukraine has not had enough weapons for many months.” Because of this, the Russian army was able to advance at the front. “But it’s not too late for Ukraine to win. More support is on the way,” he said. The question is when it will arrive.