Several African countries experience high levels of debt, making them more fragile in the face of the current global crisis. But the most indebted countries on the continent are far from those you might think.
According to the latest IMF statistics, the ten African countries with the highest debt ratio at the start of 2020 are: Sudan, with public debt equivalent to 207% of GDP, Eritrea (165.1%), Cape Verde (123.5%), Mozambique (108.8%), Angola (95.0%), Zambia (91.6%), Egypt (84.9%), Gambia (80.9%), Mauritania (78.5%) and the Republic of Congo (or Congo-Brazzaville, 78.5%).
This ranking therefore corresponds to the level of debt of African countries just on the eve of the current economic crisis, linked to Covid-19. At this stage, these data can be considered the most relevant for making comparisons, given that the economic consequences of the current pandemic for the current year cannot yet be correctly estimated, and in particular for developing countries.
The ten most indebted countries Africa
The “surprises” of the ranking
The ranking is therefore dominated by Sudan, an African country experiencing a serious economic crisis and which is in a period of political transition since the coup d’état of April 2019. A regrettable situation for a country which is none other than the second gold producer on the continent, after Ghana, and which has the great advantage of being abundantly irrigated by the Nile, the longest of African rivers, and its tributaries. It should also be noted that Sudan is now one of the five poorest countries on the continent, with a GDP per capita of only $442 at the start of 2020.
Another surprising element of the ranking consists of the place occupied by Angola, which comes fifth among the most indebted African countries. Indeed, this country also has very significant natural resources, and in particular oil, of which it is the second largest continental producer, after Nigeria. However, as with the latter, Angola is also experiencing economic decline and impoverishment, with on average negative annual growth of -1.0% over the five-year period from 2015 to 2019 (and only 1.2 % for Nigeria), which is a rate well below the country’s population growth rate (3.3% on average over the same period). A development which has notably resulted in an 85% drop in the value of the national currency compared to the dollar since 2014 (nearly 60% for Nigeria), and which is expected to continue for the next few years, at least , according to forecasts in this area, and as for Nigeria. These two countries suffer in particular from a downward trend in their oil production, and have not managed to diversify their economy and their exports, which still rely almost exclusively on hydrocarbons (98% for Angola, and 94% for Nigeria).
Finally, this ranking shows that there are only two French-speaking countries among the ten most indebted countries on the continent, and which are only in 9th and 10th place, namely Mauritania and the Republic of Congo. The latter should also come out of the top ten positions during the year 2020 (but it should be remembered, once again, that it is still too early to put forward sufficiently reliable estimates for the current year, taking into account the very particular context that the world is currently experiencing).
French-speaking Africa, the least indebted part of the continent
French-speaking Africa is generally the least indebted part of the continent, with an overall debt rate of 50.1% of GDP for this group of 25 countries at the start of 2020, and 44.1% for its sub-Saharan part. composed of 22 countries (taking into account public debt and the weight of each of their economies, according to data available mid-2020). For the rest of the continent, the rate stands at 58.9% for the whole of non-French-speaking Africa, and 53.4% for its sub-Saharan part. The overall debt level of French-speaking Africa is also significantly lower than that of the majority of developed countries.
Debts French-speaking Africa
This relatively good debt control, overall, is largely the result of the strong economic growth experienced by most French-speaking sub-Saharan African countries. This also constitutes the most dynamic – and historically the most stable – zone on the continent, where it recorded the best economic performance in 2019 for the sixth consecutive year and for the seventh time in eight years. Over the period 2012-2019, the annual growth of this group of 22 countries was thus established at 4.4% on average (5.0% excluding the very specific case of Equatorial Guinea), compared to 2.8% for the rest of sub-Saharan Africa. A dynamism which is particularly high within the UEMOA area, which is none other than the largest area of strong growth on the continent, with an annual increase in GDP of 6.4% on average over this same eight-year period. .
These performances are themselves the result of the numerous reforms carried out by the majority of French-speaking countries, particularly in terms of good governance, diversification and improvement of the business climate (even if much progress remains to be made). On this last point, certain countries have made a considerable improvement between the 2012 and 2020 Doing Business rankings, published by the World Bank, and in particular Togo (moved from 162nd to 97th place), Côte d’Ivoire (from 167th place to 110th place), Senegal (from 154th to 123rd) or even Niger (moved from 173rd to 132nd place). The latter is now close behind Nigeria (131st), and is doing much better than Angola (177th) or even Ethiopia (159th).
Thanks to this dynamism, Ivory Coast, for example, has just overtaken Nicaragua in terms of per capita wealth, to become the first poor African country in history to overtake a Hispanic American country, with a GDP per capita of $2,286 at the start of 2020, compared to $1,913 (excluding very small countries of less than 1.5 million inhabitants, mostly island and cannot be taken into account for relevant comparisons). And this, while having achieved the feat of overtaking Ghana and Nigeria, two neighbors brimming with natural wealth, to become the richest country in all of West Africa (2,202 dollars and 2,230 dollars per inhabitant, respectively for the latter). As for Niger, geographically penalized by its landlocked state, it has just succeeded in overtaking Sierra Leone, and thus leaving the unenviable position of the poorest country in West Africa (555 dollars per inhabitant, compared to 504 dollars). Finally, countries like Mali and Benin, which are not among the richest in their region, even have a GDP per capita higher than countries like Ethiopia or Rwanda, located in East Africa and benefiting from favorable media coverage.
Incidentally, and at the continental level, it should be noted that there is now only one French-speaking country among the five poorest countries, all located in East Africa (namely Burundi, and the four English-speaking countries of South Sudan, which has become the poorest country in the world, Malawi, Somalia and Sudan). Furthermore, it should be noted that French-speaking countries are overall the least unequal on the continent, with the Central African Republic even seeming to be the only French-speaking country among the ten most unequal African countries (coming in fifth position for the GINI index, according to World Bank data, however based on surveys that are not always recent on the subject). Finally, today there are no French-speaking countries in the bottom six places in the World Bank’s international ranking for the business climate, now mainly occupied by English-speaking countries (in 2012, five of the bottom six were French-speaking). .
This generally favorable development in French-speaking Africa was not so easily predictable a few decades ago, at the time of independence. Indeed, it should be remembered that the United Kingdom had taken control of the most fertile lands on the continent (Ghana, Nigeria – with the Niger River delta and its tributaries, Sudan and South Sudan – with the Nile and its tributaries, Tanzania, Zimbabwe, etc.), as well as the territories richest in raw materials (the three leading gold-producing countries on the continent, Ghana, Sudan and South Africa – for a long time the world’s leading producer in this area, the leading oil producer, Nigeria – ahead of Angola, a former Portuguese colony, the leading diamond producer, Botswana, and the second copper producer, Zambia. ). French-speaking Africa has therefore managed to catch up with the rest of the continent, of which it now even constitutes the most prosperous part, overall (or the least poor, depending on how you see things).
Overall, French-speaking countries are therefore better equipped to face the major crisis the world is going through today. Of course, the level of debt is not the only element that matters, but it undoubtedly remains one of the most important, with serious consequences both on a country’s ability to recover and on its sovereignty.