Will come ? Will not come? Even before having seen the light of day, the vaccination obligation for all is already wavering across the Rhine. The new Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who took office just a month ago, had made this measure one of the pillars of his new policy to fight against the coronavirus, and was counting on an application by March.
→ ANALYSIS. Covid-19: in Germany, the pressure increases on the unvaccinated
However, this schedule seems not to be able to be kept, unlike the vaccination obligation for nursing staff, voted very quickly in December, and which will come into force on March 15.
Behind my wolf
In the case of compulsory vaccination for all, there is first an organizational problem. The carnival festivities, very popular in the country, limit the number of parliamentary sessions in February to one week. Until then, only a general debate can be organized. Under these conditions, this measure could ” the best “ enter into force at the end of April.
Rejected by the previous government, the vaccine obligation is also and above all a first internal political test for the new coalition, made up of social democrats, environmentalists and liberals from the FDP.
The latter, in particular, are in principle very reluctant to the idea. A group of deputies opposed to the project has formed around the vice-president of the Bundestag, Wolfgang Kubicki, while another is studying the idea of an obligatory vaccination not for those over 18 but, “Italian”, for over 50s.
No voting instructions
Faced with the reluctance of the Liberals, the new chancellor therefore abandoned the idea of introducing a bill on the subject, but urged members to table their own texts. He also and above all lifted the obligation to follow the voting instructions in the Bundestag. Each member may vote in his or her own right “Soul and conscience” on the subject.
→ READ. Covid-19: the Omicron variant would be less dangerous because it affects the lungs less
“The government has a whole series of problems, legal and political, with this vaccine obligation”, observes Lothar Probst of the University of Bremen. “Without a majority in the Bundestag, Olaf Scholz will have to rely on some of the elected Christian Democrats (CDU / CSU) to pass this law. At this stage, nothing is done ”, recalls the political scientist.
For the new Christian Democratic opposition, the hesitations and difficulties of the government are a political boon. The brand new boss of the CDU, Friedrich Merz, is pushing for Olaf Scholz to quickly clarify his plans, in order, among other things, not to give too much grain to grind to the antivax, who demonstrate every Monday evening.
The arguments of the reluctant
At the heart of the debate is also the question of the constitutionality of such a project, in particular “If the vaccination should only help for two or three months”, as pointed out by the liberal justice minister Marco Buschmann (FDP). Another question mark: does such an obligation make sense without a national vaccination register, which does not yet exist across the Rhine?
But it is above all the rise in power of the variant Omicron, very contagious, which could render any vaccination obligation null and void, if it is confirmed that this virus causes fewer hospitalizations while accelerating the rate of collective immunity. To date, Omicron corresponds to 44% of new infections recorded in Germany, up from 15% just a week ago.
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