2024-01-12 08:37:13
Published12. January 2024, 09:37
A terrible year: “Parts of the world are on fire” – five hotspots in 2024
2023 did not come out of crisis mode. Unfortunately, 2024 promises to be no less difficult.
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Will “the world be on fire” in 2024? Symbolic long exposure photo of the Dixie Fire in California in 2021.
AFP
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2023 was marked by crises and wars.
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2024 is unlikely to get any better, on the contrary.
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A demolition of five hotspots this year does not make you happy.
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At least the political scientist Herfried Münkler has an explanation.
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We are therefore in a phase of separation between new world orders.
“Crisis mode” was the “word of the year” in 2023 because of all the wars, crises and attempts to overcome them. 2024 already has a candidate ready in January: annus horribilis.
This isn’t a coincidence. According to the German political scientist Herfried Münkler, we are in a phase of separation between new world orders. Such phases are often characterized by “the establishment and collapse of order” and by “more frequent and more intense wars” (box below). Five hotspots in 2024.
Former US President and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at a town hall in Des Moines, Iowa on January 10.
AFP
In the super election year of 2024, over half of the world’s population will be called to vote in 70 countries, from India, Mexico to Russia, as well as in the EU and the USA. The US presidential elections in November are considered the “mother of all elections”. Incumbent Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are expected to compete against each other. Observers fear that the political divide in the country will worsen. US democracy is being put to the test in a way it hasn’t been since the Civil War 160 years ago. Globally, depending on the outcome of the election, massive impacts are expected – “from the functioning of international institutions to international trade and climate change mitigation to the future of global security, including military support for Ukraine and relations with China,” according to a report by the Bertelsmann Foundation.
The employee of a hotel in Kharkiv after a Russian missile attack on January 11th.
AFP
There is no consensus as to whether 2024 will be the turning point in the Ukraine war. However, observers agree that Ukraine is in danger of permanently losing the territories it has annexed from Russia if the problems with soldier and weapon stocks cannot be solved. The declining political and material support from the USA has dealt Kiev a serious blow; European aid alone would not be enough. For these reasons, Kiev will take greater military risks this year, “including attacks on more targets in Russia, which could provoke unprecedented Russian reactions and drag NATO into the conflict,” says US political scientist Ian Bremmer.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban greets French First Lady Brigitte Macron in Paris on January 5th.
AFP
The European security and peace order has been destroyed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The EU is facing more simultaneous challenges than ever since the integration process began almost 70 years ago. Accordingly, the EU parliamentary elections in June are considered groundbreaking – with the possibilities of digital disinformation campaigns from inside and outside the EU having increased significantly compared to the last election in 2019. Right-wing national parties have gained strength in many countries. According to forecasts, they could win around 180 seats out of 720. The right-wing populists are still a long way from having a majority in the European Parliament. But the strengthening of the margins will make it more difficult to find political majorities in the center. Specifically: In Belgium, Germany, Malta and Austria, voting rights apply to 16-year-olds for the first time, and Greece will allow 17-year-olds.
Smoke over Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip during the Israeli bombardment on January 9.
AFP
According to observers, there is no end to the fighting in the Gaza Strip in sight. On the contrary: an escalation of a broader regional war is in the air, and the danger that the USA and Iran will be drawn more directly into it has not been averted. The longer the conflict continues, the more it threatens the global economy, deepens geopolitical and political divides and fuels global extremism. “No country involved in the Gaza conflict wants a regional conflict to break out,” said analyst Ian Bremmer. “But the powder is dry and the number of actors carrying matches makes the risk of escalation high.”
Nigerian villagers flee in late December after a series of attacks by armed groups,
AFP
“Parts of the world are on fire for structural reasons related to conflict, climate change and the economic situation,” writes the International Red Cross in its “Emergency Report 2024”. The majority of countries in which the population’s situation is deteriorating the most in the world are in Africa, where terrorism is on the rise in many places. In addition, an El Niño climate pattern will reach its peak in the first half of the year. Experts expect extreme weather events that could lead to food insecurity, disruptions in logistics, political instability and increased migration.
“It will no longer be our order”
The German political scientist Herfried Münkler sees a new world order in the making.
lena Frenovaja/commons.wikimedia
The era of the “unipolar moment” in the USA is over, said the renowned German political scientist Herfried Münkler in the political podcast of “Die Zeit”. Münkler is not the only one who sees a new world order emerging – with the global south with India, China, Russia, the USA and the EU as leading powers. This is the most likely order that will emerge, says Münkler, especially since ultimately no power can bear the “burden of global responsibility” and tasks will therefore be distributed among others. According to Münkler, the new world order under the “System of Five” will be characterized by a “polycracy* of different values” whose focus is less on individual and human rights: “That will no longer be our order.”
*Polycracy (multiple rule): “The coexistence of competing institutions of power with the same or similar competencies” (Wiki).
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