The director of the Institute for Natural Resources Governance in the Middle East and North Africa, Laurie Haitian, said that the picture remains foggy during 2022 regarding the oil market, and therefore the “OPEC +” alliance is committed to periodic meetings due to the absence of a clear vision.
Laurie Haitian added, in an interview with Al-Arabiya, today, Thursday, that there is a positive expectation that demand will return to what it was before the Corona pandemic, and that the global economy will improve, while the concern is now over supply.
She explained that the big trend currently is the question about what will happen in the supply, and the extent of the ability of the “OPEC +” alliance to commit to production, but at the beginning of this year the geopolitical situation has dominated the question about the supply, because of what is happening in Kazakhstan on the one hand, and what is happening between Russia and Ukraine On the other hand, in addition to the situation in Libya.
And the Director of Natural Resources Governance continued: “Therefore, the geopolitical situation has become the largest influence on the markets, in light of the question of the possibility of meeting the market’s demand needs.”
She added that; While the omicron has not had an effect on demand and closing the markets, there is a lot of caution.”
She explained that the problem today is what will happen to the supply and where the price of a barrel of oil will reach, pointing to calls for the return and increase of US oil production, and that the trend is not only to promote alternative and renewable energy investments, because the situation is murky on the supply side.
Laurie Haitian said that what is happening in Kazakhstan, which is part of the OPEC + agreement, may have a significant impact on the supply and the level of understanding in OPEC +, because everyone is currently looking at the possibility of stopping production from Kazakhstan, especially if there is a clash around the fields or any stop due to What happens.
Recent data issued by “OPEC +” indicate that Kazakhstan’s production, scheduled for February 2022, is 1.59 million barrels per day.
And Laurie Haitian added that the degree of concern about the halt in production may be less than how Russia will deal with what is happening in Kazakhstan, and that it wants to introduce peacekeeping forces because it looks at the issue another way, and not only that the increase in fuel is behind the demonstrations in Kazakhstan, and does Russian intervention cause In Kazakhstan take a stand on the part of the Americans and Europeans.
She explained that all of this raises a question about the impact of this when it occurs on the OPEC + agreement, especially since the alliance is successful due to the Russian-Saudi understanding, and therefore it is important to look at what is happening geopolitically to know its repercussions on prices in the future, adding that oil prices tend to rise in the fourth quarter. the first of 2022.