The early elections in Catalonia have taken pollsters by surprise: since the fall, hardly any polls have been published. But what information do we have? Below, we look at what the available polls say and speculate on how voters might be moving.
The best current information is that of the Center for Opinion Studies (CEO), which is doing exemplary work due to its transparency and methodological rigor. His last estimate was published in November: then he placed the PSC as the first force, with around 42 seats, followed by ERC (32), Junts (21), PP (14), the Commons (12), Vox (7) and the CUPs (6).
If the polls do not change much, that estimate left few simple majorities, politically and arithmetically. There could be an agreement between the PSC and ERC, which had some 74 seats according to the survey, well above the 68 necessary. The main alternative would be a sovereign majority, with ERC, Junts and CUP, although in November the CEO saw them as weak: they had around 59 seats between the three. The rest of the options seem, for the moment, more complicated, although it would be shortsighted to rule them out.
This last barometer from the CEO captured a good moment for the socialists, who had just won in Catalonia in the general elections on 23-J.
The CEO did his interviews in October, before the investiture, coinciding with the negotiation of the socialists with ERC and Junts. That is, without Pedro Sánchez re-elected, when the amnesty had not yet been agreed upon, prior to the first disagreements between these parties and, above all, before the outbreak of the Koldo case.
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It is inevitable to wonder how voters may have moved in these months. The answer will come as polls are published in the coming weeks, but there are already some clues. The first is the evolution of the vote in national polls, which are more abundant. According to 40dB., the PSOE has fallen 1.6 points since September.
The setback of the socialists does not seem deep, but it is firm. Most polls observe it. For example, according to the latest CIS – published a few days ago – the PSOE has fallen about three points in direct voting intention compared to its September numbers. And what is even more relevant: this decline is also observed when looking only at the interviews in Catalonia. There, the decline of the socialists since September is perhaps softer, but also evident: the PSC fell one or two points in February, awaiting the March data.
Of course, the surprise election call multiplies the unknowns. We must confirm the candidates of each party, better measure the vote in Catalonia, and then observe if the call itself provokes any movement from the electorate. These doubts will be resolved with the best electoral prediction tool we have: the polls that will soon be published.
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