Trump administration shifts toward Putin, fracturing support for Ukraine

Western political support for Ukraine is fractured following a series of abrupt policy reversals by the Trump administration that have aligned Washington more closely with Moscow.

In the ten days following a telephone conversation between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, the U.S. administration announced a sanctions waiver for Russian diesel supplies, restricted Ukraine’s access to battlefield satellite systems, suspended sweeping new sanctions targeting Russia, and withheld shipments of critical interceptor missiles. Washington also called for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s ouster.

The diplomatic shift has escalated tensions as U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff prepares to travel to Oslo to meet with Zelensky, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store. Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, is expected to join the talks via video link.

Speaking to NBC News’ Meet the Press on Sunday, Zelensky warned that alignment between Washington and Moscow would prove fatal to his country’s defense. “If the United States will support Putin – it’s unbelievable, it’s a tragedy,” Zelensky said. “If these two countries will be together, of course we will not prevail. And we will not be able to stand.”

Kremlin Officials View Policy Shifts as Turning Point

Kremlin officials have seized on the policy shifts as a decisive turning point in the conflict. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, stated on Tuesday that Witkoff is scheduled to brief Putin following the conclusion of the Oslo meetings.

Peskov also dismissed recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries—conducted in direct defiance of U.S. demands—as evidence of a collapsing administration. “Some final signs of agony are being observed,” Peskov said. “The Kyiv regime is resisting. But this cannot change the course of events.” Kirill Dmitriev, a Kremlin special envoy, posted a triumphant “Checkmate” message online.

Members of the Russian elite attribute the diplomatic pivot to Putin’s decades of experience managing foreign leaders. Analysts and officials note that Putin capitalized on Trump’s political vulnerabilities, specifically targeting concerns over low approval ratings and climbing domestic energy costs ahead of the U.S. midterm elections by offering a diesel supply deal.

Data showed the average U.S. diesel price reached $US6.33 per gallon on Friday, marking a five-cent increase from the previous week. A Russian academic close to senior diplomats, speaking on condition of anonymity, remarked that Russian leadership achieved a significant political victory following the leaders’ phone call.

Mikhail Khodorkovsky, an exiled Russian opposition leader, stated that Moscow’s leadership viewed the moment through an opportunistic lens. “For Putin, everything that is happening today are signs of the West’s weakness,” Khodorkovsky said.

Russian Officials Promote Diesel Agreement and Sanctions Suspension

Dmitriev and other Russian officials have promoted the diesel agreement and the suspension of sanctions—originally drafted under a bill honoring the late Senator Lindsey Graham—as foundational steps toward expanded economic and investment cooperation between the United States and Russia.

Addressing a Russian energy forum, Dmitriev pointed to ongoing discussions regarding Arctic initiatives, liquefied natural gas projects, and energy investments. “More and more Americans, including within the administration, understand that sanctions harm the United States itself,” Dmitriev said.

The sudden shift marks a stark departure from the administration’s stance in July, when Trump praised Zelensky’s leadership and expressed support for Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries as a measure to pressure Moscow.

However, as the conflict with Iran continued to sustain global oil prices, the administration altered its stance. Following an August 31 meeting with Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov at a G20 event in Asheville, North Carolina, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attributed surging fuel costs to Ukrainian refinery strikes rather than the broader Middle East conflict.

Daniel Fried, a former assistant secretary of state for Europe under George W. Bush, noted that domestic political pressures heavily influenced the decision. “The simplest explanation is that Trump was simply interested in having a talking point for the midterms on diesel, that he has a deal to lower it,” Fried said. “Ukraine is expendable on strategic grounds, in Trump’s view, and it was standing in the way of a perfectly good campaign talking point.”

Outlook Toward the December G20 Summit

Analysts suggest the mounting pressure on Kyiv is designed to force a political settlement before the end of the year. Andrew Weiss, a Russia expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, pointed to the upcoming G20 leaders’ summit in Miami in December, where Trump has invited Putin to attend.

“The only way I can explain it is that it’s connected to the milestones leading up to the meeting of the G20 in December,” Weiss said. “I feel like what’s going on here is not really about diesel or refinery long-range strikes. It’s really about Trump thinking that he can push the Ukrainians into some sort of political settlement.”

Weiss said signs point to Trump seeking to strong-arm Ukraine into a deal by December, when Trump has invited Putin to join him at the G20 leaders’ summit in Miami.

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