Trump and Biden seek to secure their nominations on the least disputed Super Tuesday in history | USA Elections

In the religious and agrarian society of the United States in the 19th century, Sunday was a day of mass and rest and Wednesday was a day of market. Many needed a day’s travel in their carriages to go to vote, which also excluded Monday and Thursday. Among the available options, Tuesday finally became the quintessential election day. Beyond the day of the presidential and legislative elections (the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, to avoid elections on the 1st, a holy day), there is another Tuesday that has been making its way in recent decades as a key electoral date. This is Super Tuesday, the day when most states vote in the presidential primaries. That date has seen decisive battles for the nomination. This year it won’t be like that. Both Donald Trump, in the Republican Party, and Joe Biden, in the Democrat Party, are counting on sweeping the least contested Super Tuesday in history.

Biden competes almost alone, as is often the case with presidents in office. The peculiar thing about this year’s primaries is how close the result of the opposition party is, where Trump has exercised incontestable dominance, despite his defeat in the capital this Sunday. The nomination of both seems inevitable and polls suggest that this Tuesday’s votes in 15 States will certify this.

Neither of them can mathematically secure the nomination, not even by winning all the delegates at stake for the summer conventions. To overcome the threshold of half plus one of the delegates, they will have to wait at least until other Tuesdays: March 12 (in the case of Trump) and the 19th of the same month (for Biden). But if the forecasts are met, the result will be incontestable.

There have been election years in which Super Tuesday was reached with swords held high in both parties. This time, in none. Among recent precedents, Biden achieved victory in 10 states in 2020 and won 726 delegates, but Bernie Sanders won in four others, including California, and won a total of 505 delegates. That day the current president got the nomination back on track, but it was a day of high tension, with close victories.

US President Joe Biden during a meeting at the White House with the Italian Prime Minister on Saturday.CHRIS KLEPONIS (EFE)

Adjusted results on previous occasions

In 2016, there was double excitement. In the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton won seven states (486 delegates) to four Sanders (321 delegates). And in the Republican one, Trump won in seven of the 11 States, but Ted Cruz won in three others and Marco Rubio, in one. Trump, in fact, only won 256 of the 600 delegates in contention. Things were so tight that the meeting two weeks later, in which five states voted, was called Super Tuesday II, which ended with somewhat clearer — although not overwhelming — victories for Clinton and Trump.

Even more exciting was the Democratic Super Tuesday of 2008, a dog-eat-dog battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton that ended almost in a draw. Obama won in 13 States, and Clinton, in 10, but the number of delegates was even more even: 847 to 834. Furthermore, more States voted that year than ever, which is why it was called Giganta Tuesday or Tsunami Tuesday, among others. other appellations. On the Republican side, with 21 States at stake, John McCain took nine; Mitt Romney won seven, and Mike Huckabee won five.

Super Tuesday has also been more contested than the current one, at least in one of the two parties, in all presidential races since the concept triumphed in the 1980s. The only precedent comparable to the current one is that of 1996, when the then president, Bill Clinton, had no rival in the Democratic Party, and the Republican favorite, Bob Dole, won in all the States. However, on that occasion only seven territories were voted, which diminishes the merit, and there was a little more uncertainty, since Dole’s main rival, Pat Buchanan, arrived with previous victories in New Hampshire and Louisiana.

This year, in addition, the distribution rules for Republican delegates favor Trump. In several states, the winner takes all the delegates if he or she gets more than 50% of the votes (something that will probably happen everywhere, since there are only two candidates). Among the winner-take-all places is California, where the most delegates are awarded (169). In Texas (161) the system is also majority, although partly by state and partly by districts. Trump has a wide lead in both.

At the Republican National Convention from July 15 to 19 in Milwaukee (Wisconsin) there are a total of 2,429 delegates. To secure the nomination, Trump needs 1,215. He has about 270 and on Tuesday there are 874 at stake, so at least he will have to wait for the 161 delegates in the running on March 12.

On the part of the Democratic Party, Biden must obtain 1,968 committed delegates of the total of 3,934 at the convention to secure the nomination in August in Chicago (Illinois). She has 206 of the 208 that have been awarded and this Tuesday 1,420 are assigned. As the Democratic calendar is somewhat behind the Republican one, she will not be able to exceed the required threshold until March 19, even if he continues to win in all the States.

Voters from both parties have an appointment this Tuesday in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia. In addition to those 14 States, in the Republican case there are caucus in Alaska and, in the Democratic, the results of Iowa (which has been voting exclusively by mail since January 12) are revealed. Primaries are also held in the territory of American Samoa.

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