On Election Day 2026, the average price of gasoline in the United States hit $4.14 per gallon, a figure that marked a new record high for a national average on an election day. This surge in fuel costs coincided with a significant decline in President Donald Trump’s net approval rating, which dropped by nearly 20 percentage points since the beginning of 2026.
Election Day Fuel Price Records
The $4.14 average price reported by AAA on November 3, 2026, exceeded the average recorded during the first week of November in any election year since 1994, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, noted the historic scale of the pricing on social media, stating, New election day record: the highest ever national average for gasoline and diesel prices ever on election day,
in an X post.
Correlation Between Gas Costs and Approval Ratings
Analyses from USA TODAY, which incorporated EIA data and Reuters/Ipsos polling, indicate that President Trump’s slide in public opinion tracked closely with the rise in fuel costs. By early October, polling from Navigator Research found that 76% of registered U.S. voters disapproved of the president’s handling of gas prices, with only 20% expressing approval, including 60% who strongly disapproved.
Currently, 62% of Americans disapprove of how he is handling his job as president, while only 36% approve; nearly half of all Americans, 49%, strongly disapprove. The dissatisfaction is particularly pronounced among specific constituencies, including Black women, 90% of whom disapprove of his performance, and independents, 72% of whom disapprove.
- 73% of registered voters disapproved of the president’s handling of inflation and the cost of living, while 23% approved; 56% strongly disapproved.
- 65% of Americans disapproved of his handling of the economy, including 50% who strongly disapproved, with only 32% approving.
- 58% disapproved of his handling of foreign policy, compared to 34% who approved; 46% strongly disapproved.
Regarding these findings, the pollster stated, President Trump’s approval ratings have hit all-time lows in Navigator tracking,
adding that Majorities disapprove of Trump’s handling of gas prices, inflation and the cost of living, and foreign policy.
Impact of the War on Iran
Gas prices began to climb following the start of the war on Iran in late February 2026. More than eight months after the start of the conflict, President Trump acknowledged the effect of the war on the domestic economy and the Republican Party’s performance in the midterm elections.
Vice President JD Vance echoed a similar sentiment following the GOP’s losses. The conflict remains a dominant feature of negative news coverage regarding the administration. Public trust has also shifted; 40% of voters now trust the Democratic Party more on foreign policy compared to 32% who trust Trump and the Republican Party. Furthermore, 62% of respondents feel the president lacks a clear timeline and goals for the military operation in Iran, up from 56% in April.
The combination of high inflation, rising energy costs, and the ongoing military operation contributed to what observers described as a historic night for Democrats in the November 3 midterms. Messaging regarding the cost of the war and the potential alternative uses for those billions of taxpayer dollars has proven effective in driving opposition to the conflict.
