For the first time in at least 50 years, the United States experienced negative net migration in 2025, a shift attributed to policies enacted under the Trump administration, according to a report released Tuesday by the Brookings Institution.
The report estimates net flows ranged from a loss of 295,000 to a loss of 10,000 individuals during the year. This marks a significant departure from historical trends, with more people leaving the U.S. Than entering it. A similar assessment, published by Simon Johnson in Project Syndicate, points to a reduction in legal immigration as a key driver of this trend, forecasting a slowdown in economic growth as a result.
While the Trump administration has emphasized increased removals, the Brookings report indicates the primary factor behind the negative net migration is a substantial decrease in recent entries into the country. This decline stems from the suspension of refugee programs, humanitarian parole programs, and a reduction in the number of temporary visas issued. According to the report, between 310,000 and 315,000 individuals were removed in 2025, a figure comparable to the 285,000 removals recorded in 2024.
The USA Today reported in January that the trend could continue, citing ongoing aggressive immigration enforcement actions. The Department of Homeland Security claims to have removed over 600,000 people during the crackdown, a figure that differs from the Brookings Institution’s estimate.
The economic implications of this demographic shift are already becoming apparent. Johnson’s analysis suggests that reduced immigration will likely slow economic growth, potentially significantly. The Brookings report echoes this concern, stating that the slowdown in migration implies weaker employment, GDP, and consumer spending growth.
Recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau indicates a broader trend of slowing population growth, with declines in net international migration contributing to the overall deceleration. While some states, like Ohio and Michigan, have seen improvements in net domestic migration in 2025 compared to 2021, the national trend remains negative.
The administration has not yet responded to the Brookings Institution’s report. A recent reduction in data transparency, as noted by Brookings, makes future estimates more uncertain, but the institution projects that net migration is likely to remain in negative territory for 2026.
