Wen‧Hong Baoshan
The TSMC law meeting on January 12 is definitely the key to whether the weighted index can hold the support of the quarterly line. At the third quarter law meeting last year, President Wei Zhejia predicted that the supply chain inventory would not return to a healthy level until the first half of 2023.
At that time, China’s dynamic zero-clearing policy had not yet left the market. Now China’s dynamic clearing of “yin” is fast. It is estimated that after the end of the two sessions in March, the peak of the first wave of epidemics will almost begin to cool down. Refer to China’s comprehensive purchasing managers’ index for three consecutive years. It is below the line of prosperity and decline below 50, and it is estimated that it will return to above the line of prosperity and decline in May at the earliest. Therefore, the media has positively viewed TSMC’s capital expenditure this year as it is expected to approach US$40 billion (US$38-39 billion), creating another history A new high, with an annual growth rate of 5.6~8.3%.
Foreign capital bearish on TSMC’s growth this year
In fact, in TSMC’s three-year capital expenditure plan of 100 billion U.S. dollars, it will account for 30 billion U.S. dollars in 2021 and 36 billion U.S. dollars in 2022. If the final capital expenditure in 2023 is 40 billion U.S. dollars, the total will be 106 billion U.S. dollars. The original plan of TSMC.
It’s just that repeated orders placed in response to supply chain bottlenecks in 2021 and the sudden closure of Shanghai in 2022 have reduced TSMC’s originally estimated capital expenditure of US$40-44 billion in 2022 by 10-18%. This gap has made foreign investors bearish on TSMC’s performance this year. key factor for growth.
Chen Jiayi, a semiconductor industry analyst at Citigroup Global Securities, pointed out that since the second half of 2022, orders for PCs and smartphones have been quite sluggish. There is no sign of customers replenishing inventory.
The demand for smartphones in the Android camp continues to decline, and Apple will also enter the off-season for the handover of new and old models. It will decline by 5% and 15%. It will wait until the fourth quarter to re-drive the annual growth rate growth due to the increase in volume of the three-nanometer process. In 2024, due to the improvement of the product mix due to the mass production of the three-nanometer process, profits will rebound strongly by more than 30%.
Stock prices fall in first quarter for three consecutive years
From a financial point of view, it is estimated that there will be no exciting news for TSMC in 2022. What investors want to know is that the stock price has the price discovery function ahead of the first quarter to half year performance, so at what stage does the current stock price reflect ?
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, TSMC’s stock price has been revised from a high point to a downward point in the first quarter. In January 2022, it fell from a high of 679 yuan to a low of 518 yuan, a drop of -23.71%. In January 2022, it fell straight from a high of 688 yuan to the third quarter. If only the low of 555 yuan in the first quarter is counted , a drop of -19.33%, and TSMC has fallen in the first quarter for three consecutive years, so will history repeat itself in the first quarter of 2023?
The author thinks that the chance is not big. From the perspective of advanced manufacturing process, the main contributor to TSMC’s revenue in 2020 is seven nanometers, accounting for about 33% of revenue. However, the market began to reflect the benefits of five nanometers in advance, so the stock price fell from The low of 235.5 yuan rushed to the high of 679 yuan in January of the following year, an increase of 1.88 times.
It is estimated that the stock price range will fluctuate greatly during the year
Looking back now, Europe and the United States were hit by the epidemic at that time, and Taiwan blocked the first wave of COVID-19 attacks. Inspired by the benefit-to-order effect, stockholders responded too enthusiastically. By 2021, the main source of revenue contribution will be five nanometers. The annual contribution is estimated to exceed 230 billion yuan, accounting for about 14.55% of revenue. However, after TSMC’s stock price reached a high of 679 yuan at the beginning of the year, it will no longer be A new high, obviously balancing the increase in overdraft overdrafts in the previous year.
In January 2022, the straight fall after seeing the 688 high point actually reflects in advance that the mass production progress of 3nm is delayed compared with the original expectation. From this perspective, Citigroup Global’s early warning coincides with the stock price leading by three months to half a year The decline in performance, so will TSMC in 2023 repeat the decline in the first quarter of the past three years? I think the chances are slim. It is speculated that TSMC’s stock price is currently in the B-2 of the big B wave rebound, and it will be a range-bound trend during the year.
TSMC announces 3nm mass production and plant expansion
Since the advanced manufacturing process is TSMC’s winning trick, the industry generally believes that TSMC does not need to step on the brakes on capital expenditures due to short-term inventory adjustments, especially Samsung has preemptively announced the news of 3nm mass production, although Samsung has not informed the public of 3nm Yield rate, but it is undeniable that Samsung will produce three-nanometer chips for Huida, Qualcomm, IBM, Baidu and other customers, and it is estimated that it will start supplying products in 2024 at the earliest.
Therefore, TSMC, which rarely holds large-scale public events, held a three-nanometer mass production and factory expansion ceremony on December 29, 2022. There are noises about the poor yield rate of 3nm. Chairman Liu Deyin said that the current yield rate of 3nm is equivalent to that of the same period when 5nm was mass-produced, and it has been mass-produced.
According to media reports, semiconductor experts conservatively estimate that the yield rate of 3nm is about 60-70%, while another multinational industry analyst estimates 75-80%.
The big factory expresses its position to let TSMC manufacture three nanometers
Over the past year or so, TSMC’s 3nm yield has become more difficult to increase. For this reason, it has continuously revised its 3nm blueprint and divided into multiple 3nm family versions such as N3 and N3E. The picture has changed. The number of shipments of 3nm in the fourth quarter of last year was very small, and the shipment volume increased slightly in the first quarter of this year. It will not start to increase month by month under the influence of Apple’s new iPhone 15 after the second quarter. .
Although Samsung announced the successful mass production of 3nm chips in June last year, it is rumored that the yield rate of 3nm is only about 10~20%, so that most of Qualcomm’s next-generation Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 orders will go to TSMC.
At present, including Apple, Huida, Intel, AMD, Qualcomm, and MediaTek, they have all expressed their willingness to let TSMC manufacture 3nm chips. If Samsung continues to suffer from yield problems, TSMC will start mass production of 3nm in the first year in the future. It is estimated that within five years, the output value of three-nanometer applications in supercomputers, clouds, data centers, high-speed networks, mobile devices, and metaverse AR/VR terminal products will reach $1.5 trillion.
Foreign-funded Taiwan index futures rallied before the customs closure
After two days of stock market trading on January 3-4, with the rise of the weighted index, the more than 10,000 long positions held by foreign investors in the Taiwan index futures have gradually reduced their positions. It is estimated that before the closing date on January 17, It will maintain the state of slight reduction in spot prices and profit-taking of Taiwan index futures rallies, facing the FOMC interest rate decision-making meeting at the end of January and early February.
Touxin began to replenish the high-priced IC design group, which is contrary to the trend of foreign capital. Among them, Alchip-KY and MediaTek should be optimistic about the consumption power after China’s reopening. Jiadeng, a mainland company that has suspended supply, is also on the buying list. In addition, Baosteel’s upswing has driven Sinosteel’s outlook to look good. Although Huaxin, which has a rising nickel price, has a lot of customers, it also buys it.
Compared with the dark horse stocks at the end of the first quarter, Novatek, Ruiding, Gigabyte, ASRock, Tianyu, Jinju, ZTE, Huacheng, etc., most of them have already met the technical conditions for the bottom of the market. It is estimated that in the first quarter The trend can be tracked if it rises more or falls less.
As for foreign bets such as Chailease-KY, Huahan, Dashu, Xiangshuo, HTC, Baoya and Fubon Media, etc., most of the trends are in the critical period of bottoming and success, and need more time to test back and forth. The group of carrier boards jointly sold by foreign capital and investment trust needs more time to observe and track.
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