2023-08-30 02:01:00
2023/08/30 11:01 Weather news
The Japan Meteorological Agency announced that the tropical cyclone near the Truk Islands is expected to develop into a typhoon within 24 hours. The next typhoon will be called Typhoon 12.
At this time, it is expected to move further north than Typhoon No. 11, and it is possible that it will approach the Japanese archipelago, so it is necessary to pay attention to its course in the future.
▼Tropical cyclone August 30 (Wednesday) 9:00
Central location in the waters near the Truk Islands
Move Northwest West 10 km/h
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed 15 m/s
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 23 m/s
» Radar Typhoon Mode
Not likely to develop as a typhoon
Currently, there are two typhoons, Typhoon No. 9 (Saora) and Typhoon No. 11 (Haikui), around Japan, and this tropical cyclone occurred on the southeast side of Typhoon No.
From the Marshall Islands to the Mariana Islands, the monsoon from the west and trade winds from the east converge, called a “monsoon trough.” The monsoon trough has counterclockwise wind circulation, and typhoons are often born in this.
At present, the sea surface temperature in this area is over 30°C, which is warm enough to supply water vapor. Because there is no wind flow, it can be said that the environment suitable for the development of tropical cyclones is in place. Therefore, it is highly likely that this tropical cyclone develops into a typhoon.
After becoming a typhoon, this tropical cyclone is expected to circle around the Pacific high and move northwest, gradually approaching the Japanese archipelago. Compared to No. 11, the sea surface temperature is lower than No. 11, so it will not develop much after becoming a typhoon.
Even if the typhoon doesn’t intensify much, it can send in damp air and cause heavy rain, so please pay attention to future information.
» Radar Satellite Cloud Image Mode
» Radar Wind Mode (Wind Flow)
Reference Results of simulations of paths calculated by meteorological agencies around the world
Each thin line in this figure represents the simulation result of the course calculated by meteorological agencies around the world. The results (members) obtained in the process of the ensemble forecast method are posted to give an image of the wide range of possible paths.
A comparison of these members reveals that although they all tend to move toward the northwest, there are wide variations from those heading toward the East China Sea through the vicinity of Okinawa to those heading northward to the south of Honshu. Masu.
Not only the course, but also the timing and power predictions are in a situation where the error is quite large. The error is expected to shrink as the days go by, so please pay attention to future information.
Probability of entering the storm zone of a typhoon
The probability of entering the storm zone of a typhoon within 5 days is as follows. (Japan Meteorological Agency)
Amami region 3 %
Okinawa main island region
Main Island North/Central South 4 %
Kerama and Aguni Islands 3%
Kumejima 3%
Big East Island 4%
Miyakojima region 4 %
Yaeyama region
Ishigaki Island 4 %
Yonaguni Island 2%
August 6th typhoon?
Average number of typhoons
Typhoons No. 7, No. 9, No. 10, and No. 11 occurred in August of this year, and Typhoon No. 8 came from a hurricane that entered from the western longitude. The next typhoon will be called Typhoon No. 12, and will be the sixth typhoon of the month (fifth in the Northwest Pacific Ocean).The average number of typhoons in August is 5.7, which is the time of the year with the most typhoons.
The number of typhoons this year is slightly lower than usual, but Weathernews forecasts that there will be at least 10 more typhoons by the end of the year.
As autumn approaches, it is expected that the number of typhoons that affect the Honshu area will increase, so please prepare for typhoons and heavy rains in preparation for the coming season.
» Latest typhoon information
Reference materials, etc.
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