Typhoon Gucheol: Latest Updates and Forecast

2023-06-11 01:01:00

2023/06/11 10:01 Weather news

As of 9:00 on Sunday, June 11, strong Typhoon Gucheol is moving north-northeast south of Minamidaito Island.

Moist air around the typhoon is expected to flow into the seasonal rain front tomorrow, Monday, the 12th, and rain clouds are expected to develop locally.

▼ Typhoon No. 3 Sunday, June 11, 9:00
Central location Approximately 320km south of Minamidaito Island
Size class //
Strength class Strong
Move NEE 25 km/h
Central air pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed 35 m/s (near the center)
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 50 m/s
» Latest typhoon information

The main body of the typhoon will come closest to the Izu Islands on the night of the 12th (Monday).

Typhoon No. 3 is expected to gradually change course to the east and move toward the Izu Islands. It has already passed the peak of its development, and will gradually lose its strength as it moves to areas with lower seawater temperatures. By the time it passes south of the Izu Islands on the evening of the 12th (Monday), it will become an extratropical cyclone. It is expected to start changing.

Rain clouds from the typhoon itself may cover the southern part of the Izu Islands, so be careful of intensifying wind and rain just in case.

Possibility of localized intensification of rain on the Pacific side

Rain clouds tend to develop due to the warm and moist air around Typhoon No.

Active rain clouds are mainly over the sea, and some of them are expected to pass over western Japan and the Pacific Ocean side of eastern Japan, causing temporary heavy rain. Short-term heavy rains may cause flooding of roads, swelling of rivers, landslides, etc.
» Radar Wind Mode (Windflow)

In areas hit by repeated heavy rains since the beginning of June, the ground may have loosened. Landslides and other disasters are more likely to occur even with less rainfall than normal, so please continue to stay away from dangerous areas such as gentle slopes.

Probability of entering the storm zone of a typhoon

Areas where the probability of entering a typhoon’s storm zone within 120 hours is 0.5% or higher are as follows. (Japan Meteorological Agency)

Tokyo 9%
Southern Izu Islands 3 %
Ogasawara Islands 9%

The size of the forecast circle has nothing to do with “strength” or “size”

A feature of this typhoon is that the “forecast circle” indicated by the dashed circle in the track map is very large. Over the next five days, the typhoon forecast by the Japan Meteorological Agency is the largest in five levels (C rank).

The size of this forecast circle does not indicate the strength or size of the typhoon, but rather the degree of uncertainty of its course.

According to the current definition of the Japan Meteorological Agency, the forecast circle indicates the area where the center of the typhoon is expected to enter with a probability of 70%. It can be read with low confidence.

Understand typhoon information accurately and take appropriate disaster prevention and evacuation actions.

Time when typhoons start to increase

This year, Typhoon No. 1 occurred in April and Typhoon No. 2 occurred in May, and this Typhoon No. 3 will occur for the first time in about half a month.

The average number of typhoons in June is 1.7, which is the time when the number of typhoons starts to increase. This is the time when the rainy season front becomes more active, so please prepare measures against typhoons and heavy rain.

typhoon name

Typhoon names are prepared in advance by member countries of the international organization “Typhoon Committee”, etc., and are given in order of occurrence.

Typhoon No. 3’s name, Guchol, was proposed by Micronesia and is derived from the Yap word for turmeric.

Reference materials, etc.

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