Original title: US experts: Omicron will be replaced by new strains of new coronavirus or will never disappear
On January 21, local time, according to CNN, Yvonne Maldonado, an epidemiologist and infectious disease researcher at Stanford Medical School, said that after the Omicron variant, another A whole new strain of the new coronavirus may come, and then the Omicron variant will be replaced, but the new coronavirus may never completely disappear.
Compared with last week, 14 U.S. states saw a drop of at least 10% in the number of confirmed cases of the new crown, but 26 states saw a rise of at least 10%, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. The outbreak appears to have reached or passed its peak in some areas of the United States, such as Boston and New York, where the Omicron variant first emerged. But in other places, like Georgia or Atlanta, the variant is still raging. (CCTV reporter Yin Yue Xuxiao)
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No one should confidently assert that Omicron is a sign of the end of the epidemic, but we should believe that, whether it is Omicron or other new coronavirus variants in the future, the number of infections will surge, and the number of people who develop severe disease will be less than before. The front will be brighter.
On January 20, The Lancet published a number of articles on the new crown Omicron variant, one of which was a commentary from Chris Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), which caused great repercussions. Murray predicts that the new crown pandemic is likely to turn this year in March.
Murray said that according to the current epidemic situation, in March this year, 50% of the world’s population is expected to be infected with Omicron mutant strains. These infections can protect other mutant strains, so they can help all human beings to build an immune barrier to prevent future infections. Corona Variant.
He also said that data analysis shows that 40% of new crown infections in the future will be asymptomatic infections, and according to the results of official data from South Africa and the United Kingdom, the asymptomatic rate of Omicron infection may be as high as 80% to 90%.
Taking Greece, whose medical conditions are among the world’s median, as an example, the article pointed out that the number of infections in many countries this winter was 10 times that of the same period last year. The number of infections in the U.S. since January is about 300 percent of last year’s peak levels, but hospitalizations have not increased, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
Murray believes that vaccination can significantly reduce severe illness and death caused by Omicron infection at the population level, which is also a key factor in the future of the new crown to approach the fatality rate of influenza. He concluded that the pandemic is expected to end in the near future, despite the persistence of Covid-19.
Murray’s views were echoed by other experts. Alain Fischer, head of the French government’s vaccine program, believes that while it is still too early to predict when the wave of infections in Ommikron will end, there are some encouraging signs. He expects that from March this year, people will gradually usher in the dawn.
“We should be able to control the current peak well, and we expect a period of calm after the peak,” Fischer said earlier this week. He said the reason for the calming down is that the immune protection of the population from vaccination and natural infection is already quite high. About 30 million French people are currently fully vaccinated, and it is expected that by March this year, 45 million French people will be fully vaccinated.
Although on a global scale, the epidemic is continuing to receive good news that the number of infections has peaked. But earlier this week, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said: “The pandemic is not going to end immediately.” He warned that new mutations of the virus due to the rapid spread of Omicron should be alerted.
A few days ago, the United Kingdom expressed concern about a subtype of a variant of Omicron. The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said on Friday that it was studying a variant of the Omicron subtype known as BA.2. As of January 10, 53 BA.2 sub-lineages had been sequenced in the UK and It has been announced. However, the variant has not yet been listed as a variant of concern.
Dr Meera Chand, UKHSA’s Covid-19 Director, said: “The nature of viruses is to evolve and mutate, so we can expect that we will continue to see new variants emerge. Ongoing genomic surveillance allows us to detect these variants and assess whether they are important. “
In Denmark, BA.2 is also spreading rapidly. In the last week of 2021, it accounted for 20% of all Covid-19 cases, a proportion that has risen to 45% by the second week of 2022.
Anders Fomsgaard, a researcher at the Statens Serum Institut in Copenhagen, said he has not yet come up with a good explanation for the rapid growth of the Omicron subtype, and while he is puzzled, he is not too concerned.
While the prevailing view is that the Omikron virus is evolving into a highly contagious, relatively mild strain, some experts believe that continued mutation of the virus could allow outbreaks to recur.
Philippe Froguel, professor of medicine at Lille University Hospital in France and Imperial College London, said: “The biggest unknown in the future is whether new mutations will appear in the new crown.”
William Hanage, an epidemiologist and co-director of the Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, commented recently: “No one should assert with confidence that Omicron is the end of the epidemic, but we should believe that whether it is Omicron or other new coronavirus variants in the future will have fewer severe cases than before, and the future will be brighter.”
Omicron Spread Timeline