The World Meteorological Organization has declared that an El Niño weather phenomenon is officially underway, with a near-certain likelihood of persisting through the second half of the year. UN officials warn the climate pattern will drive up global temperatures and trigger extreme weather events, prompting calls for immediate international preparation.
World Meteorological Organization Declares El Niño and Warns of Record Temperatures
The World Meteorological Organization announced that El Niño is already under way, setting the stage for increased heat worldwide, severe droughts in some regions, and heavy rains elsewhere. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which feeds data into the WMO, confirmed the arrival of the pattern, noting it is expected to reach at least moderate strength.
The natural climate pattern occurs on average every two to seven years, with episodes typically lasting nine to 12 months. Because El Niño’s warming effect is usually felt most strongly within a year of its onset, scientists anticipate the most pronounced temperature spikes in 2024.
Global Disruption from Droughts, Floods, and Infrastructure Vulnerabilities
WMO secretary general Prof Celeste Saulo noted that communities are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods, and these impacts will compound against the backdrop of long-term human-caused warming. Typically, El Niño brings increased rainfall to southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and central Asia, while triggering severe droughts over Australia, Indonesia, parts of southern Asia, Central America, and northern South America.
In Peru, where the coastline borders the eastern Pacific, vulnerability remains particularly high. Previous episodes brought heavy rainfall that resulted in flash flooding and landslides, especially in urban centers where drainage infrastructure struggles to cope. Miguel Aréstegui, climate resilience lead at Practical Action, cautioned that weather phenomena do not arrive in a vacuum. He pointed to underlying structural challenges, including housing in exposed areas, fragile water and sanitation systems, and weak healthcare infrastructure, that amplify the damage.
“We are significantly concerned, but that concern needs to translate into preparedness rather than alarm.”
Miguel Aréstegui, climate resilience lead at Practical Action
International Health Agencies and Governments Mobilize Early Responses
In response to the WMO declaration, international agencies and national governments are moving to preposition supplies and deploy technical assistance. The World Health Organization expressed acute concern over expected increases in infectious and vector-borne diseases. Maria Neira, the WHO’s environment, climate change and health director, warned that many affected countries are already facing ongoing crises, raising specific alarms regarding cholera, mosquito-borne illnesses like malaria, measles, meningitis, and rising food insecurity leading to acute malnutrition.
Practical Action has partnered with local communities to expand access to early warning systems, sharing critical data on river levels, flood risks, and weather forecasts. Meanwhile, national deployments are underway. The United States announced the deployment of the vessel USNS Comfort to the Peruvian coast to deliver medical assistance and technical equipment ahead of the peak impact.
Projections for Warmest Years on Record
The hottest year on record remains 2016, which featured an exceptionally strong El Niño combined with human-induced heating. In May, the WMO predicted a 98-percent likelihood that at least one of the next five years will break that record, making the five-year period as a whole the warmest ever documented.
Wilfran Moufouma Okia, head of regional climate prediction services at the WMO, noted that the atmospheric response operates with a time delay, meaning global temperatures will climb further as the months progress. While organizations urge governments to mobilize preparations for health systems, ecosystems, and economies, experts emphasize that early warnings remain vital to save lives and livelihoods as the intensified climate cycle takes hold.
