2024-01-19 03:48:00
MétéoMédiaEditorial team
Published on January 18, 2024 at 10:48 p.m.
This winter season is rather unusual: although the El Niño phenomenon is well established in the Pacific Ocean, the atmosphere does not really behave accordingly.
Other elements take over El Niño, further influencing the general picture of winter, of which the polar vortex is an example. A sudden stratospheric warming at the start of winter forced the latter to fragment in recent weeks, forcing descents of cold air towards western North America.
Good to know: El Niño is a warm water anomaly present in the Pacific Ocean, which has an effect on the atmosphere. The location and intensity of the anomaly will determine the direction of the high-level winds and the configuration of the atmosphere.
In a classic El Niño context, it is rather the mildness that dominates from one ocean to the other – and especially in the west of the continent. Conversely, cool temperatures are common in the southern United States.
Unlike what we experienced in December, this is not a traditional scenario that is currently taking place in the northern hemisphere. In fact, the atmosphere reacts as if La Niña were still established in the Pacific Ocean.
A second stratospheric warming is expected to once again push the cold towards our latitudes in the coming weeks. Such a context would therefore continue to relegate El Niño to second place. This trend could have amplified consequences towards the end of winter if the descents of Arctic air occur directly over Quebec rather than over the Western Canadian provinces, as was the case last week.
Recall that NOAA experts predict that El Niño will fade this spring, followed by a likely return of La Niña before the end of summer 2024.
SEE ALSO: Is Quebec about to lose its winter?
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