U.S. employers added 165,000 jobs in October, more than double what forecasters expected, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The surprise landed hours after the worst stock market day since April 2025 and days after Democrats took control of Congress in the midterm elections.
The beat was broad. Economists polled by LSEG had expected 65,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate holding at 4.2%; the Dow Jones consensus cited by CNBC stood at 59,000. August and September payrolls were revised up by a combined 84,000 jobs — August to 186,000 from 133,000, September to 60,000 from 29,000 — according to the Fox Business breakdown of the report.
🔥 “The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday reported that employers added 165,000 jobs in October. That figure was well above the 65,000 estimate of economists polled by LSEG.” Under @POTUS, jobs are pouring back into our country and this month’s jobs report is yet another… pic.twitter.com/jNzw5hM6oj
Where the Hiring Came From
Professional and business services led with 70,000 jobs, far above its 15,000 monthly average over the past 12 months. Health care followed at 42,000 against a 31,000 average, and transportation and warehousing added 25,000 while manufacturing added 19,000, per the BLS figures detailed by Realtor.com.
Restaurants and construction cut jobs, NPR reported. Average wages rose 3.1% year over year — beating the 2.4% LSEG forecast but still trailing September’s 3.7% inflation rate.
Not everything was strong. The long-term unemployment rate — the share of workers jobless for 27 weeks or longer — rose to 27.6% from 27.1%, CBS News noted, and the number of long-term unemployed stood at 2 million.
Traders Push Fed Odds Toward a December Hike
The reaction was unusually one-sided. Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, called it a blowout jobs report
on X, and Wharton economist Mohamed El-Erian wrote that it came in very strong, across the board,
Yahoo Finance reported.
JUST IN: A blowout jobs report. The US economy added 165,000 jobs in October. That’s above expectations of ~65k. August and September also revised a lot higher. There was a big surge in professional and biz services hiring (+70k!), along with ongoing gains in healthcare and… pic.twitter.com/vQXBfkp3cT
Today’s jobs report is a strong rebuttal to fears that the economy is heading into a meaningful slowdown,
Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management
Payroll growth surprised firmly to the upside, unemployment fell back to 4.1% and job creation remains broad-based, pointing to an economy that is still absorbing labor comfortably rather than one beginning to buckle under tighter financial conditions. CBS
The report lands directly on the Federal Reserve’s December meeting. The central bank raised rates by a quarter point in September — its first hike since 2023, to a 3.75%–4.00% range — and held steady in October. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh had said at the October meeting that the jobless rate was lower than a year ago and payroll growth was running above last year’s pace, Kiplinger noted.
Traders agreed the report settles the question. CME FedWatch put the odds of a quarter-point hike at the Dec. 8-9 meeting at roughly 77% after the release, up from about 66% the day before, while Reuters reported post-report pricing near 85% — and traders pulling forward the next-and-final increase to April from June.
Consistent with prior, more partial indicators of the US labor market, the October Jobs Report came in very strong, across the board: • Nonfarm Payrolls: +165,000 (with net upward revisions of +84,000 for the prior two months) • Unemployment Rate: 4.1% (below the consensus…
Raymond James analysts wrote that the Fed should now concentrate on the inflation side of their mandate
and expect a 25-basis-point increase in December. Christopher S. Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS, went further, writing that Fed officials are likely wishing they hiked rates last week.
Inflation Still Outpaces Wage Gains
The strongest report of the year did not settle the cost-of-living argument. Jared Bernstein, former Council of Economic Advisers chair under Joe Biden, called it a strong jobs report with revisions that make it not an obvious one-off
— but wrote that it doesn't erase this painful fact: Inflation has wiped out all wage gains for 7 straight months.
Workers are losing ground right now,
Cory Stahle, economist at the Indeed job-search website
The longer it wears on, the more and more they're going to feel that,
Stahle told NPR. That frustration was a big factor in Tuesday’s midterms, in which voters handed Democrats the House and Senate, per Realtor.com and NPR’s reporting.
Markets Split Over the Jobs Surprise
The report followed a bruising Thursday, when the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 logged their worst one-day loss since April 2025 and the Magnificent Seven
stocks lost more than $1 trillion in aggregate market cap on fears a Democratic Congress will tighten regulation of AI infrastructure and data center expansion, CNBC reported, citing FactSet data. The hot jobs report cut the other way for policy: Treasury yields jumped, with the 10-year up more than 3 basis points to 4.868% and the 2-year roughly 6 basis points to 4.53%.
The U. S. economy again crushed economists' expectations, with very strong private sector job growth in October. 📈 The labor force is thriving under President Trump. pic.twitter.com/W7wV1Cc8j0
In commodities, spot gold fell $34.10, or 0.89%, to near $4,050.95 an ounce, while spot silver edged up $0.089 to near $51.864, Kitco reported. Nymex WTI crude traded around $90.40 a barrel in an 8:40 a.m. EST indication, with Brent near $98.20.
Stock futures were mixed after the release. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.5%, rebounding from Thursday’s selloff, but Dow futures fell 450 points, or 0.87%, per CNN’s report carried by Channel 3000.
US Unemployment Rate moved down to 4.1% in October, coming in better than the estimate of 4.2%. 165k jobs were added during the month, well above the 60k estimate. August/September jobs were revised up by 84k. YoY hourly earnings: +3.1%. Fed will hike rates again in December. pic.twitter.com/FCgq7hDwh3
Economists See Green Shoots, With Caveats
Some economists hesitated. This is still a low-hire, low-fire market overall, but we could be seeing some green shoots on the hiring side,
said Jake Krimmel, senior economist at Realtor.com, who added that the trend matters more than any single month. Ger Doyle, North America regional president at ManpowerGroup, told Newsweek the report shows real momentum in real-time hiring data, while cautioning that the strength needs to spread into more industries before calling a hiring recovery.
The numbers back the caution. The 2026 average of 86,100 jobs a month still sits well below 2024’s 108,800 average and pre-pandemic levels of roughly 120,000, CNN noted — though the three-month average has climbed to 137,000. It is too early to call a turning point.
Before the Fed’s Dec. 9 decision, policymakers will weigh November jobs data and October inflation figures. For anyone holding short-term savings, each quarter-point hike is worth about $1,000 a year on $400,000 in bills, CDs and money market funds yielding 4.21% — the arithmetic 24/7 Wall St. laid out for a 67-year-old retiree. The hiring side, at least, may be turning: but you don't get a good trend without a good month.
Earlier coverage: U.S. adds 165,000 jobs in October amid AI growth
BOOOOM. Jobs report crushes all expectations. Unemployment rate back down to 4.1% https://t.co/qkCcl7w0LS
