Growing concerns about President Joe Biden’s age and his ability to physically and mentally meet the demands of his role in a second term have fueled speculation in the US that he may drop out of the race.
That’s exactly what Republican presidential nominee Nikki Haley recently argued in the wake of U.S. Attorney Robert Hurr’s report, which spoke of his remarkable memory problems. Bidenincurring his wrath.
Biden himself tries – sometimes self-mockingly – to play down the impression of his age, which is, however, one of the major issues of the election campaign on the way to the November elections. His every verbal gaffe, every slip-up brings the issue back to the table, stoking the worry among many Democratic voters that Biden will be easy prey for Trump, which also precedes most polls. Republicans, as expected, do not fail to emphasize the years that weigh on Biden’s shoulders, even though their own Trump is only four years younger than him.
Biden says he is determined to continue
Biden, of course, does not seem ready to give up the fight, being convinced that he is the only one who can defeat Trump in the fall showdown. People who have frequent contact with him – among them European diplomats – consider all this talk about his age exaggerated, arguing that the President has full clarity.
But both the White House and most in the Democratic camp are averse to — at least publicly — talk of Biden’s age. The party seems to openly support the president.
But in Washington political circles and in the US media there has long been a heated debate about the Democrats’ plan B revolving around the perennial questions: Will Biden voluntarily withdraw from the race? How could she step aside for a new face? Who could replace him?
Possible replacements for Biden
Most of those whose names have fallen on the table, of course, emphasize their loyalty to Biden at every opportunity, but some younger Democrats have already begun a somewhat shadowy campaign with numerous interviews and appearances on national television panels.
The 59-year-old Kamala Harris she is the most obvious, de facto choice to replace Biden as the presidential candidate because of her government experience from her time as US Vice President in the White House.
US Vice President Kamala Harris / File Photo: AP Photo
“I am ready to serve my country. There is no doubt,” she said in a recent interview. But her even lower approval ratings than Biden’s (at 38 percent, according to an average of FiveThirtyEight polls) would likely fuel concerns about Harris losing the election to Trump.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s political activism—and his support from Democrats outside the Golden State—sparked rumors last year that he was running a shady campaign for the White House.
California Governor Gavin Newsom / File photo: AP Photo
He is considered charismatic and a sharp orator, but he has rejected the possibility of running for the Democratic nomination, pledging allegiance to Biden. The measure’s disadvantages include the distaste of many American voters for California, which they see as leaning too far to the Left, too chaotic and too expensive, so it’s not a model for the rest of the country.
The billionaire governor of Illinois, J. B. Pritzker.
Joe Biden with Illinois Governor J. B. Pritzker / File photo: AP Photo
According to iefimerida, the 59-year-old politician states that he supports the candidacy of Biden, but for some time now he has been trying to strengthen his profile at the national level, while his large fortune would allow him to finance an expensive campaign for the White House.
The governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer, is among the progressive politicians of the Democrats, that is, in their left wing.
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer / File Photo: AP Photo
The 52-year-old politician is well-respected in Michigan – one of the key states that the Democrats will have to win if they want to send one of their own to the White House again.
Michelle Obama is considered something of a “wildcard” for the Democrats, due to her high popularity.
Former US First Lady Michelle Obama / File Photo: AP Photo
But unlike other potential Biden replacements, the 60-year-old former US First Lady has made it clear that she is not interested in a descent into the political arena.
One of the main scenarios to replace Biden
What is certain is that if Biden’s polling decline continues, the debate about whether he should stay in the race, or step aside for a new face, will heat up even more.
According to one of the main scenarios circulating in the American media, Biden will continue to govern in the coming months and gather in the internal party primaries by state the most delegates for the Democratic convention in August in Chicago, but on the eve of it he will announce that he is leaving voluntarily quit the race due to old age or citing health problems.
Biden himself, after all, consistently presents himself as a “bridge” with the new generation of Democratic leaders. Also counting in favor of this scenario is that the Democrats would avoid a long, painful battle between potential replacements and would end up at the four-day convention in August with their presidential candidate, that is, the one who would secure the support of the majority of the 4,000 delegates.
It would be a bargain that would bring to light the conflicts between the various wings of the Democrats, with Biden likely to play an important role – both overtly and behind the scenes – giving the “line” for the person of his choice, just like his predecessor, Barack Obama, who is still very influential in the party.
Risk and opportunity for Democrats
The stakes of such a move would be great for the Democrats, as history shows: in 1968 – an election year – then-President Lyndon Johnson did not seek re-election, and his replacement, Huber Humphrey, who was chosen by party delegates, was defeated in the election by Republican Richard Nixon.
But there are also opportunities, since replacing Biden with a younger candidate could lead to an electoral victory, as polls show that the majority of Americans are tired of “Biden versus Trump”. So the Democrats would go from being on the defensive – because of Biden’s age – to counterattacking by regaining the initiative of moving a new candidate against a Trump and his hateful rhetoric.
What if Trump is forced out of the race?
In such a case the Republicans would be the ones with their backs against the wall. In their July conference in Milwaukee, similar rules apply to their opponents. If Trump can’t continue the campaign, their 2,400 delegates will have to find a new presidential candidate.
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