There is no evidence. However, the story that many unauthorized votes are cast in US elections persists. The Republican Party, which famously lost the last presidential election, blames voting by mail. According to her statements, she produces a particularly large number of irregularities.
Since then, the regulations have been tightened in the US states where the Republicans have government influence. The number of polling stations was reduced, or it became illegal to offer food and drink to voters who had to stand in line for hours.
Escalation in rejections
The US Magazine «Mother Jones» has set out to find out what effects the restrictions could have on the election result. To do this, the magazine analyzed mail-in ballot data in Georgia, which is one of the swing states. In the 2020 presidential election, the election result was there observed very closely.
The number of rejected mail-in ballot applications there skyrocketed after the Republican Party enacted restrictions on mail-in voting in Georgia in March 2021, data shows.
The new rules will shorten the timeframe for applying for and returning absentee ballots, prohibit election officials from mailing applications to all voters, include tougher requirements for proof of identity, and limit access to ballot boxes.
18 percent of the postal voters were denied the vote
The proportion of voters who applied for postal voting at least once and did not vote by post or in person rose from seven percent in the 2020 parliamentary election to 18 percent in the 2021 local election. In total, there are just over 1,000 voters.
That sounds like little, but it is a lot. A mail-in ballot application in Georgia was 45 times more likely to be denied in 2021 than in the previous year. Extrapolated to the 2020 presidential campaign, in a vote that was decided by 11,779 votes in the state, 38,000 absentee ballots would not have been cast.
Those whose applications were approved also faced more restrictions: completed postal ballot papers were twice as likely to be rejected after voting. That would be – extrapolated to the 2020 presidential election – another 31,000 uncounted votes, “Mother Jones” calculates.
In Atlanta’s 2021 mayoral election, held in conjunction with local elections, half of the ballot-by-mail applications were rejected because they were received more than 11 days before the election date. The deadline had previously been four days.
“Local voters are more experienced”
One criticism of this analysis is that it compares different elections. Sara Tindall Ghazal, a Democrat and member of the Georgia State Elections Committee, finds the results of the analysis even more disturbing. Municipal voters are usually more experienced than those who only vote in presidential elections. Formal errors that can lead to rejection are usually less common, she says to “Mother Jones”.
Democrats are generally more likely to vote by mail than Republicans, so they are more affected by the new restrictive laws. There are many reasons for that. For example, the presidential election takes place on a working day and there were quarantine regulations during the corona pandemic.
In Georgia, Democrats request absentee ballots four times as often as Republicans. Half of the refusals concerned, according to the voting rights group «Fair Fight Action» Blacks, who make up a third of Georgia voters.
Only a quarter of those rejected went to the polls anyway
If you don’t want to rely on the post office, as is common in Europe, you can use special “Ballot Drop Boxes” in the USA and throw in your completed postal ballot papers there. In 2021, the boxes were only available until the Friday before the election, during business hours and inside polling stations. Their number has been reduced. In Atlanta in 2021 there were only a quarter as many as before.
In Georgia, it is possible to submit multiple absentee ballot applications, so a rejected application may be successful the next time. It is also still possible to vote at the ballot box. In the end, however, only a quarter of those rejected later went to a polling station. The bottom line is that 45 times more voters were prevented from casting their ballots than in the previous year. Compared to 2019 and 2017 before the corona pandemic, there were still five times as many.
Voting rights lottery in Texas
In other states, too, the Republican Party took some absurd measures to reduce voter turnout. In Texas, where the right to vote by mail only applies to a few groups such as seniors, a new identification rule came into force: voters were asked to identify themselves by their ID number or the last four digits of their social security number.
This “or” is perfidious. Because the number given must match the one that the voter gave in his very first election application. The chances are good that the person concerned no longer knows, because that can be years to decades ago. The result was a kind of voting rights lottery: anyone who gave the wrong number was unlucky. The number of rejections increased sevenfold.
Why Republicans are all about deterring voters
James K. Galbraith, professor of civics at the University of Texas, explains why the Republican Party is so keen to keep voter turnout low «Standard» published:
Due to the electoral college system, Galbraith explains, 43,000 votes in three states in the last presidential election would have been enough to tip the election result in favor of Trump. This despite the fact that Biden received significantly more votes in absolute terms. So it’s about a few places and very few voters.
As a result of the Covid pandemic, the opening hours of the polling stations had previously been extended, the voting window extended and postal voting expanded. The record high voter turnout proves that the otherwise rather low turnout in the USA is not due to the inertia of the voters, but to the hurdles in voting.
The “Reps” are fighting a losing battle against demographics
Overall, election events in the US are predictable, says Galbraith, who analyzed the 2020 presidential election in detail. In states where income inequality has increased, the Democrats are reliably ahead, in more stable states the Republicans.
The Democratic Party has particularly many supporters among well-qualified urban professionals and among low-income minorities. Both groups are growing. In Texas, the Democrats have gained three percentage points in the presidential election every four years, writes Galbraith. This trend will continue.
Attempts to make voters wait longer in line again, prevent them from voting by mail, redefine constituencies and introduce ID restrictions could only delay this process. Still, the expert says, the strategy could work for a while, especially in the upcoming midterm elections in November 2022, when turnout is usually rather low.
Subject-related interest of the author
No
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