Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic waited two days before speaking out on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. “To undermine the territorial integrity of a country, whatever it is, is something very bad”, said the head of state. But Serbia has its “vital interests and traditional friends”and that is why it will not impose sanctions on Moscow, becoming the only European country with Belarus not to act in this direction.
Both a historical ally of Russia and a candidate country for European Union membership since 2012, Serbia found itself this week in a very uncomfortable diplomatic position and, after a long hesitation, chose not to side with Brussels.
Moscow, a “historic” and feared ally in Belgrade
“On the one hand, the Belgrade executive is afraid of suffering an electoral setback during the presidential, legislative and administrative elections to be held on April 3”explains Serbian analyst Srdan Cvijic, a member of the Balkan Policy Advisory Group in Europe (BiEPAG).
A 2021 poll by the Institute of European Affairs (IAE) indicates that 83% of Serbian citizens consider Russia to be a “friendly” country. Sanctions against him would risk being unpopular one month before the elections. On the other side, continues Cvijić, “Vucic and his allies fear the reaction of the Kremlin, which they believe could try to sabotage the government as happened in Montenegro in 2016”when a coup attempt involving two Russian nationals was denounced by Podgorica.
→ ANALYSIS. War in Ukraine, these countries that spare Russia
Nevertheless, the decision of the Serbian head of state is not without consequences in the West. “Serbia is once again losing the trust of its Western partners and the wind of tolerance it has enjoyed so far will soon turn”, concludes Srdan Cvijic. In 2014, Belgrade ended up justifying the Russian annexation of Crimea, not wanting to offend Russia, a crucial partner in the energy field and a great ally – because of its right of veto at the UN – in the fight against the independence of Kosovo.
This time, Belgrade could be forced to choose between the EU and Moscow, and the pressures are beginning to exert themselves, first and foremost on the Russian side. This Monday, the Secretary of the Security Council of Russia, Nikolai Patrushev, will visit Belgrade.
European military reinforcements in Bosnia
But Serbia is not the only country in the region to be shaken by the war in Ukraine. In Bosnia-Herzegovina, the number of soldiers deployed within the framework of the European peace mission (Eufor Althea) has just been revised upwards by NATO and the EU, with the dispatch of 500 additional men, to a total of 1,100 soldiers on site. “We are going to witness provocations in the Western Balkans and in particular in Bosnia and Herzegovina”, EU Foreign Policy High Representative Josep Borrell said on Friday. Barely a week ago, the head of European diplomacy warned against the ” critical situation ” in Bosnia, where “nationalist and separatist rhetoric is increasing and endangering the stability, even the integrity of the country”.
The main cause for concern is the Republika Srpska (RS), the Serb-majority entity in Bosnia-Herzegovina, whose leader Milorad Dodik has set in motion a veritable process of secession in recent months, with the creation of institutions parallel to those that already exist at the national level in Sarajevo. “If (Russia) conquers Ukraine, the most vulnerable point in the Western Balkans is Banja Luka (the capital of the RS)”estimated Friday Stevo Pendarovski, the president of North Macedonia, the last country to have joined NATO in 2020. Questioned on the subject, Milorad Dodik denied any intention of destabilization in Bosnia and Herzegovina.