The countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus are under pressure but, caught off guard by the speed and brutality of events, they have so far taken no significant steps. What room for maneuver do they have?
For the Russian newspaper Vzgliad, no doubt, “the crisis in Europe reinforces the importance of the post-Soviet space” for Russia. The program director of the Valdai Club (an international forum on Russia in which Vladimir Putin regularly participates), Timofei Bordatchev, notes that “every act of these countries, which are not directly involved in the Ukrainian crisis, testifies to their rank in the global hierarchy and portends their behavior in the future”.
The reaction of the post-Soviet countries to the south and east of Russia, which have, somehow, for thirty years, “built their destiny in the paradigm of globalization under the leadership of the West”East “a mixture of fear and worry”. Car “the drama and intensity of the events took the elites by surprise”, explains the geopolitical scientist. These states “wait anxiously to see how this ‘fire’ will burn their own future”.
States that continue to “tackle”
Nevertheless, overall, the reactions of the countries from “southern belt” “prove that Russia still maintains relatively strong positions there”, continues Bordachev. Because, he explains, “no state has unequivocally supported the position of the United States and its satellites”for the simple reason that none is “directly involved in Western institutions, as is the case, for example, of the Baltic countries”. Therefore, these states continue to “to tack” and that “fix Russia”.
A striking surprise came from Georgia: while Russian-Georgian relations have stalled since Moscow’s recognition in 2008 of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia (two breakaway regions of Georgia) , “Tbilisi preferred to stay away from the West’s economic and psychological warfare against Russia”. On the one hand, Georgia hopes to get out of the game of its economic cooperation with Russia, on the other hand, the pressure of the Americans on the Georgian government is moderate, because “the Russian fleet totally controls the Black Sea”.
Armenia “observe in silence”, and there are no massive demonstrations against Russia. Although “Armenian political elite is pro-Western”she is careful not to complicate her
[…]
Alda Engoian