For the first time since the beginning of the Russian invasion in Ukraine, a door to peace seems to have opened up at the end of the talks Russian-Ukrainians in Istanbul. Russian negotiators have indicated that the chances of concluding peace would be closer if an agreement was reached on Ukraine’s “neutrality and non-nuclear status”. Requirements formulated by Russia for a long time and that the Ukrainian President recently agreed to seriously consider to end the war. But what are we talking about here and what does this mean for Kyiv?
What are the criteria for becoming a neutral country?
On this subject, there is no single definition inscribed black on white in any international treaty. For Patrice Bouveret, director of Armaments Observatory, we can qualify as neutral, “a country which undertakes not to attack or participate in the aggression of another country within the framework of a military alliance”. So much for the general definition, but in fact, there are as many types of neutrality as there are states belonging to this club. The reason is simple: neutral status is decided by an international agreement taken within the framework of the UN and ratified by the various countries concerned, which together define the parameters.
The criteria vary from country to country “depending on their history and their involvement in past conflicts”, continues the expert. For example, Switzerland and Austria are both neutral countries, but austria in its status is prohibited from being in a military alliance where Germany is also located. A condition due to the fact that the two countries were allies during the First and Second World Wars, but which would not make sense for Switzerland.
What does non-nuclear status mean for a country?
“By adhering to this status, a country undertakes not to possess nuclear weapons or to develop a nuclear military program, explains Patrice Bouveret. This also means that he does not receive a nuclear weapon from another country. During the Cold War, Ukraine harbored Russian nuclear weapons and today Germany and Belgium have American nuclear weapons on their soil as part of their NATO alliance.
On the other hand, the non-nuclear status does not concern civil nuclear power. It means that nuclear power plants can continue to operate to produce energy in the country.
What consequences for Ukraine?
Regarding the non-nuclear status, nothing really moves for Ukraine, which does not possess nuclear weapons and was already a member of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT). As for its neutrality, that’s another story. This would mean that Ukraine gives up joining NATO. “It would then become a buffer zone between NATO member countries and Russia,” summarizes Patrice Bouveret.
On the other hand, this does not mean that Ukraine will have to demilitarize. “Neutrality does not mean pacifism or absence of military force whose mission is to defend the country”, specifies the director of the Armaments Observatory. Moreover, if Europe has eight neutral countries (Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Moldova, Austria, Sweden, FinlandIreland, and Malta) only three states in Europe do not have a national army: Andorra, Iceland and Liechtenstein.
A neutral Ukraine with a non-nuclear status, is it for tomorrow?
It is not because Russian and Ukrainian intentions seem to go in the same direction that they can override the law. Indeed, Ukraine’s aspiration to join NATO is enshrined in the constitution. “ President’s statements do not have legal value, contrary to the Constitution”, underlines to AFP Olga Aïvazovska, director of the Ukrainian NGO Opora. It must therefore be modified via amendments or a referendum. Both are prohibited by Ukrainian law in times of war. And even if the war stopped, not sure that the parliamentarians or the Ukrainian people plan to renounce NATO.
On the other hand, for neutral status to be recognized, it must be ratified by the parliaments of the guarantor countries, namely the members of the UN Defense Council, the Russia and Ukraine. Everyone will therefore go there on their own terms, starting with Ukraine, which has already demanded an “international agreement” to guarantee its security. kyiv wants the United States, China, France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Canada, Italy, Poland, Turkey and Israel to sign this agreement and react in the event of an attack on the country.