(CNN Spanish) — Trade relations between the countries of the European Union (EU) and Russia, especially with regard to the purchase of Russian gas and oil, have been in the eyes of the whole world since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine at the end of February.
The EU is one of the Russia’s main fuel buyers, on which it largely depends. For this reason, and unlike USA, did not stop buying it despite condemning the invasion, implementing tough sanctions against Moscow and lend a determined military support for Ukraine.
But now that the EU has finally ad that it will stop buying oil from Russia within between six and eight months, a measure that will hit the Russian economy hard – Europe will, however, continue to buy gas – the question is how the countries of the bloc will be able to replace that supply so as not to suffer the consequences themselves.
Russian oil purchases from Europe
According to 2020 data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Russia exported 48% of its total oil production to European countries, particularly Germany (11%), the Netherlands (11%) and Poland (7%). Other important buyers of Russian oil in the region are Finland (4%), Slovakia (2%), Italy (2%), Lithuania (2%) and Hungary (2%).
How much fuel does the European Union import from Russia?
This, in turn, constitutes the 27% of total oil imports of the countries of the European Union, a significant percentage that will have to be replaced with other producers.
Russia is the second largest oil producer in the world, surpassed only by the United States and ranking just above Saudi Arabia: it produces about 9.7 million barrels a day, of which it exports about 5 million, according to theand EIA.
Possible replacements to supply from Russia
By comparison, the United States produce about 10.2 million barrels a day, Saudi Arabia about 9.3 million, Canada about 4.3 million and Iraq reaches 4.2 million, to speak of the five main producers.
In the case of Saudi Arabia, the country also has the second largest oil reserves –after Venezuela– among the countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which account for almost 80% of the world total.
The measure announced by the European Union will force changes in the international oil market: not only Europeans will have to look for new suppliers, Russia will also have to find new buyers.
But few producers have been willing or able to increase output to account for global cutbacks in Russian oil purchases, though United Arab Emirates he recently suggested that he might give it a try.
In addition, both OPEC and Russia were since before the war putting the brakes on production in order to keep prices high in a pressured market.
Meanwhile the price of a barrel of oil stays high at US$106 for a WTI barrel (standard in the US) and US$109 for Brent (standard in Europe). In December 2021, when the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine that would culminate in the invasion began, WTI was at $67 and then began to rise rapidly.