Fuel prices out of control? Diesel, gasoline or fuel oil, the prices of these products remain very high despite interventions and aid.
On the set of QR l’actu, Olivier Neirynck, technical director of Brafco, the federation of fuel and fuel traders answers your questions.
How to explain the distortion between the price per barrel and the price at the pump?
The price per barrel no longer seems to align with the prices demanded from the consumer. So are there intermediaries profiting from the crisis? Olivier Neirynck explains the disparity between the price of the barrel and the public price is linked to the exchange rate between the dollar and the euro: “The price of a barrel has indeed fallen, but the euro has also fallen against the dollar, but all oil trade is done in dollars. We are therefore penalized at the level of crude oil but also at the level of finished products. In addition, demand is strong for diesel. This is also what justifies this high price at the pump”.
Diesel: when can we expect a return to the price before?
Can we expect a significant drop in prices and a return to the price of diesel as we experienced in 2021? For the technical director of Brafco, there is little chance that it will happen in the short term: “The return of diesel to 1.30 euros is improbable. On the other hand, a diesel at 1.70 is within the realm of the possible. Quotations are down. Unless there is a significant geopolitical element likely to further destabilize the market, we will be able to find reasonable prices. As for gasoline, it has already fallen below 1.70 euros but it had to undergo 4 positive ratchets which caused prices to increase”.
Diesel and gasoline: are we going to operate the reverse ratchet?
Operating the reverse ratchet is not on the agenda comments Olivier Neirynck : “On March 19, we experienced a big reduction in excise duties of 17.5 centimes for both diesel and petrol. In compensation, the government planned to increase excise duties again as soon as the price fell below 1, 70 euros. The reverse ratchet is not on the government’s table. There is still a possibility, however, of reducing excise duties by nearly 10 cents per liter to reach the European floor, but the government does not wish to apply it at this stage”.
End of hydrocarbons?
For the technical director of Brafco, it seems clear that one day we will be able to do without hydrocarbons: “The oil sector is working to offer renewable products. HVO is already marketed in Belgium, unfortunately its rate of excise duty is much too high. The Minister of Finance must reduce these excise duties to allow the consumer to choose between a fossil fuel and of the HVO”.